[opendtv] Re: Talk about living in the past
- From: "Bob Miller" <robmxa@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2007 16:52:43 -0400
It is interesting to see the pundits saying that what Aloha bought for
$35 million is a steal for AT&T at $2.5 billion.
I agree since I think that in 2010 this same spectrum will be valued
at over $200 billion (just channels 54 and 59). That is what I thought
it was worth in 2000 when the auction scheduled for June of that year
was expected by some to bring in $100 billion for all channels from 52
to 69 less four public service channels. Not too far fetched when you
look at the $35 and $45 billion paid for similar spectrum in the UK
and Germany.
Now we are talking about $15 billion tops for all the remaining
channels. Maybe you can understand my frustration when no one put up
$18 million to buy all of 55 in 2002. The FCC's reserve price for
Auction 73 puts such a channels value at a minimum of $940 million
while AT&T's purchase of Aloha's spectrum ups the value of 6 MHz to
around $2.5 billion since while they are buying two channels, 54 and
59, they are buying less than half the licenses available.
The value of one 6 MHz UHF channel is $2.5 billion today, was $940
million on Monday, was $18 million in Auction 44 with no buyers in
2002, will be sold for $4 billion plus in January 2008 and will be
worth $100 billion in 2010 IMO.
Wild ride.
Bob Miller
On 10/10/07, Manfredi, Albert E <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Bob Miller wrote:
>
> > Judging from AT&T's buy of Aloha the Telcos are back and
> > will take all this spectrum at whatever it cost just
> > like British Telecom and Deutsch Telecom did in 2000. The
> > logic seems to be to pay any price to take it off the
> > table and keep new entrants out just as Google suggested.
>
> That's what's so weird about these auctions. They seem designed to help
> create new monopolies. The same people who thought it was such a good
> idea to break up AT&T have put in place a scheme that seems to foster a
> return to the old days.
>
> Nor are they are likely to balance the budget in any meaningful way,
> these days.
>
> Bert
>
>
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