"So what has really happened here? Why has the 600 MHz 'beachfront' property
suddenly dropped off in value?"
Because "beachfront property" was the usual ignorant hype, from those who
benefit most from hype. What is "beachfront" for long range and broadcast use
is not necessarily optimal for dense 2-way networks that require really high
capacity. Clueless people like to focus on one aspect, like range or the
ability to diffract around obstacles, while gleefully ignoring the other
simultaneous properties. That is common in all of hype. You give only partial
information, hoping that the listener will come to some desired conclusion,
typically wrong, to give you a temporary benefit. Trade scribes sell copy,
politicians get votes, the FCC can pretend it is forging ahead with something
really significant, and the real truth will emerge later. So they don't need to
care.
I think this spectrum could have been made available, for uses where it
actually makes sense, just because in these locations, it would have been TV
white space. Regardless, the longer term effects should not be too significant
anyway, even according to the ATSC 3.0 narrative? That narrative being,
believably enough, that TV is heading toward on demand and interactivity. TV
industry use of spectrum that is suboptimal for two-way comms and high
capacity, especially in high density environments, should diminish over time.
Bert
--------------------------------------------------
http://www.tvtechnology.com/opinions/0004/was-the-incentive-auction-necessary/282577
Was the Incentive Auction Necessary?
$20B is nothing to sneeze at, but it represents only a fraction of what was
originally expected
January 16, 2018
By Doug Irwin
WASHINGTON-If you work in either radio or TV and are about to embark on a
"repack" project (as I am) then what you are about to read may not seem very
amusing at all.
The incentive auction has been over for quite some time, and we can now point
to the following facts:
Verizon indicated initially that they were going to participate, but in the
end, did not
AT&T is already selling the 600 MHz spectrum that it picked up
Sprint never participated
T-mobile ends up the only one of the big four that collected a substantial
amount of 600 MHz spectrum
"The incentive auction largely sprang from Congress' National Broadband Plan in
2010, which tasked the FCC with conducting a first-of-its-kind of auction that
paid TV broadcasters to relinquish their 600 MHz licenses so that wireless
carriers and others could buy them in an auction," according to
fiercewireless.com. "Expectations were high...Prior to the start of the
auction, Moody's predicted it could generate as much as $60 billion in winning
bids. After all, AT&T said in 2014 it would purchase between 20 MHz and 40 MHz
of spectrum in the auction...but the auction only ended up generating roughly
$20 billion in winning bids."
To be fair, $20B is nothing to sneeze at, but it represents only a fraction of
what was originally expected. AT&T now has access to a swath of 700 MHz
spectrum because of its FirstNet deal, so the spectrum they bought is already
expendable. The other major incentive auction winners included Dish Network,
Comcast and U.S. Cellular. U.S. Cellular will likely build out its 600 MHz
holdings, but it's unclear whether Dish and Comcast will actually use theirs,
according to the same article. Dish has said it will build an IoT network.
Comcast could use its 600 MHz spectrum for its Xfinity Mobile or its own IoT
network known as MachineQ.
So what has really happened here? Why has the 600 MHz "beachfront" property
suddenly dropped off in value? The reality is that technology moved along a lot
faster than the U.S. Government did. Spectrum owners are using what they
already have in more efficient manners. Verizon, as an example, is using MIMO
(multiple in, multiple out), non-licensed Wi-Fi spectrum (i.e., LAA), smaller
cells and carrier aggregation. In addition the big four and others are
increasingly interested in milli-meter wavelengths too, especially when it
comes to 5G.
I hope we don't look back a few years from now and call this entire debacle a
complete waste of time.
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