[opendtv] Re: TV Prices Fall, Squeezing Most Makers and Sellers
- From: Albert Manfredi <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2011 04:39:23 -0500
Mike Tsinberg wrote:
> Unfortunately the "high standard" of living is only for the
> fully employed. The standard of living for 10%+ (20% by some
> estimates) of unemployed now for more than 3 years is only
> going down. These 10%+ cannot find work because most of
> commodities are manufactured in China and sold here in such
> a way that we cannot compete
True enough, but I think you might be conflating multiple different events. The
high unemployment is a relatively recent phenomenon, precipitated more by the
housing bubble bursting (as it predictably was going to do) than by Chinese
labor. Manufacturing jobs had been exported for several decades, when
unemployment in the US was often at or below 5 percent. So the sudden high
unemployment, starting in 2008, cannot be attributed to China alone.
The housing bubble had me panicked, but everyone around me seemed giddy with
excitement. There was too much fake wealth tied up in real estate. No economy
can stand real estate assessments growing by 25 to 30 percent per year, for
some 5 years running, without a major catstrophe coming on. And that was caused
by a combination of an overabundance of personal greed, shady practices by
lending institutions, and inane government policies (guaranteeing loans they
had no business guaranteeing).
Many economists believe that what creates an improving standard of living is
productivity that grows steadily, like 2 to 2 1/2 percent per year. So to
achieve that productivity growth, companies do things like automating
production chains and finding cheaper labor. Ideally, the people not needed for
old jobs would be put to better use creating whole new market segments. This
is, after all, what has been happening ever since the Industrial Revolution.
I think that now that the real estate market has been restored to probably
saner levels, if government policies quit threatening businesses with way
higher costs coming up in the next few years, businesses will start hiring
again.
Bert
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