[opendtv] Re: Spectrum is too valuable

From: Albert Manfredi <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thu, 26 Nov 2015 18:34:14 -0500

Craig wrote:

The report does not tell us how many people stream through smart TVs, game
consoles, or PCs connected to TVs, or those who just watch TV on PCs, Laptops
and tablets. So the actual percentage. Is probably much higher.

So this raises the real question:

Why is the shift to OTT streaming slower than Bert would like?

Exactly because it does not list the obvious methods. It only lists use of the
limited little boxes. People who stream to their PCs, phones, tablets, smart
TVs, laptops, aren't even counted. You answered your own question.

I think Ron nailed it: many people are satisfied with their MVPD service,
even
if they believe it is overpriced.

I think you guys keep ignoring the obvious. People are bailing out of the
legacy solutions. People are are both cutting and shaving the cord. That's why
the content owners and rights holders are developing the new techniques. And
the cabled MVPDs are buying time, cluttering up spectrum they have with
broadcast streams, for two pretty obvious reasons:

1. They will milk the legacy walled-in bundle model as long as they have
faithful and compliant servants who pay for it, even as those numbers dwindle,
and

2. They are creating scarcity in this broadband commodity, to command higher
prices. But even that is not 100% the case, as you have pointed out, because at
least occasionally, they have increased your broadband speed without changing
your plan.

I'll repeat, though, that the same applies to OTA broadcast as to cable
broadcast. Although OTA broadcast has a perfect excuse to *be* broadcast.
That's the only way they can afford to offer FOTA TV. Converting to a two-way
infrastructure involves a lot of cost, including recurring expenses, for the
dense mesh of transmitters. And of course DBS has a technical limitation to
offering two-way service, in high density markets. But cable is another matter
entirely, now that they have converted their infrastructure to two-way.

But the capacity
needed for all the linear networks in the MVPD bundles is just starting to be
built out.

This is where you lose focus, Craig. What capacity? The capacity is not in the
PONs, that already exists. The capacity is in the edge servers, those needed
for the more popular programs. Cabled MVPDs are bragging about deploying DOCSIS
3.1, and in the same breath, they are bragging about offering a mere 1 Gb/s
aggregate load per PON, with DOCSIS 3.1. Now do you see what it's all about?

The "capacity" calculation is very different, when comparing broadcast methods
to two-way methods.

What is different about CBS All Access, and what I just described above?

The difference is, just like SlingTV, All Access does not attempt to become
your one and only TV content source. Any scheme that merely duplicates the
legacy MVPD bundle model, and consequent pricing model, does attempt to do
this. Any scheme offered only to the subscribers of that physical
infrastructure, for example. But I think that it cannot take long for all of
the cabled MVPDs, once they have converted to IP, to want to exploit this new
capability they will have gained, just as Dish understood some time ago, and
compete outside their previous walled in territories.

Bert

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[opendtv] Re: Spectrum is too valuable

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