[opendtv] Re: Six years on
- From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 14:10:18 -0400
John Willkie wrote:
>"It is clear that LG will be able to offer good indoor reception with the
>fifth generation 8VSB receiver maybe for $300. COFDM indoor reception is
>under $75."
>
>And, barely worth it, since it's used to present legacy formats. I still
>maintain that the silicon cost is of interest to manufacturers, that the
>real item to consumers is the quality of reception, audio and images. VSB
>kills COFDM on the latter two points.
>
>And, HDTV content appears to be the same or better quality than current
>DVDs, and will be the same or better than HD-DVDs. Only blind people will
>say the same about the content transmitted via COFDM -- save Australia.
>
>"Something is happening here, and you don't know what it is, do you, Mr.
>Jones?"
>
>John Willkie
>
>
You have to add France, China and Japan to the list.
The real item to consumers still seems to be content at the right price
IMO. The UK will approach six million COFDM receivers by the end of this
year and it seems to be that they like the offering price of both the
receivers and content.
The fact that the receivers work plug and play is also a cost point. The
"cost" of frustration with poor reception or the hassle factor may be
the biggest cost component of 8-VSB's failure in the US.
Given the choice in the US back in 2000 I have no doubt that the sale of
8-VSB receivers would have been far lower than even the minuscule sales
we have seen and the sale of COFDM receivers would have been higher in
real numbers and in percentage terms than those in the UK.
At the same sales rate being experienced in the UK the US would have 36
million COFDM receivers sold over just the last two years. If we go back
to the spring of 2001 when COFDM receivers could have gone on sale if
allowed in the US the figure would be even higher.
One major difference is that in the US with COFDM allowed in 2000 we
would have seen a significant number of USDTV type ventures where major
subsidies would have been in place for COFDM receivers. This would have
increased the sales of COFDM receivers to far higher levels than the UK.
Soon after January 2001 COFDM receiver cost would be zero for many
people signing up for subscription services. The large quantities would
have reduced the cost of buying a COFDM receiver outright also.
We will now see this take place both with COFDM and 8-VSB in the US with
the advent of the 5th gen receiver. There are now business models that
will work. All that was ever required was a working receiver. 8-VSB
business models will work though limited to fixed while the major
success will come with mobile plans.
Mobile is still held back by broadcasters squatting on spectrum but both
the increased interest of Congress on the subject of the transition
timeline and ironically the new 5th gen receiver will radically impact
the timeline in the next few months IMO.
Still waiting for a surprise bill from the House Commerce Committee. Joe
Barton seems to like surprises. Powell will make an independent FCC
decision for the Ferree plan IMO setting 2009 as the deadline. Auctions
will then take place by next June of the remaining channels above 51.
The only consensus bill out of Congress will include the billion subsidy
for receivers and Congress will be unable to pass any bill that will
change the FCC decision on 2009. We will be left with the subsidy in
place, a hard deadline and a June 2005 auction.
Lots of spectrum for COFDM mobile and ironically a lot of spectrum for
cable and satellite killing 8-VSB wireless cable ventures.
It IS going to finally get very interesting.
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