[opendtv] Re: Retransmission battles signal trouble for free TV (too pessimistic?)
- From: Tom Barry <trbarry@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 05 Jan 2010 12:19:06 -0500
inline...
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> At 9:56 AM -0500 1/5/10, Tom Barry wrote:
>> The following article is from Broadcast Engineering and I agree with
>> much of it in principle. It is nothing we have not discussed here
>> repeatedly. But I think I take issue with the shorter term forecasts of
>> problems with TV advertising revenue since I do believe the economy has
>> already turned.
>
> I guess you did not really understand what Michael was saying. THe
> decline in revenues fro broadcasters is not tied directly to the
> recession; there was a time when the broadcast nets and local stations
> made MORE money during a recession as people stayed home and watched
> more TV.
>
Well, maybe I understood or maybe I didn't. The article claims TV ad
revenues will be down 8% year over year in 2010. I'm guessing they will
be flat to slightly up, due to the economy which DID have an impact.
Why don't we just file this post and discuss it one year from now? It
should then be obvious which was correct.
Note I'm not disagreeing with the arguments for the long term trend. TV
stations no longer have a monopoly on local video distribution and both
business models and politics will have to change to reflect that.
> Look around Gainesville. How many car dealerships have been closed in
> the past year?
>
> I can think of at least five. This is a business that was vital to
> local broadcasters, a highly competitive business. But the auto
> industry has restructured, in part because there were too many brands
> and too many dealers. A significant portion of automotive related
> advertising is NEVER coming back.
>
> But more to the point, Michael points out that a significant portion
> of TV advertising revenues are moving from broadcast to cable, and
> that local stations are relying on subscriber fees to survive. When
> the networks go direct with the MVPDs, you can say goodbye to
> broadcasting as we know it.
Yes, indeed. The long term trend is against the local broadcasters. But
now the pessimism is recognized I believe it has become overdone.
(autos too for that matter)
>
> Mark Aitken told us that at least some broadcasters are trying to
> re-invent their business model. I expect that Sinclair has a better
> handle on this than most. But Sinclair also has (had) a synergistic
> relationship with other businesses that CEO David Smith owns, namely
> car dealerships. Talk about taking a hit...twice!
>
> I hope Mark is right and that broadcasters do reinvent their business
> model and remain viable. Unfortunately, I have seen few positive signs
> that this is happening.
>
> Broadcasters need to get into the content creation business to
> survive. There is no longer a scarcity of distribution channels;
> reliance on other delivery platforms to deliver bits you buy from
> others is not a long term survival strategy.
>
Whatever makes you think broadcasters are in a position to compete on
creating most content? National content creators can spend commensurate
with the size of a national audience. Local content creators must spend
only that amount justified by the size of the local audience. Local
broadcasters just do not have the economy of scale to compete in most
media creation.
- Tom
> Regards
> Craig
>
>
>
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