[opendtv] Re: Report: Desktops slump, mobile systems rise

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Fri, 15 Apr 2011 08:57:25 -0400

At 5:36 PM -0500 4/14/11, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:

Here is what John has been referring to:

---------------
John:
There will probably be a trend towards setting up a single household desktop as a file server with multiple laptop/netbook/tablet users in the house. 

Craig:
More likely a cloud server that keeps all of the family files and content so they can be streamed to any device anywhere. 
----------------
John's point is so simple and obvious. That PC he's talking about may even be a server that can be reached from outside the home, but no way can you expect millions of people to access it to watch HD or even SD streaming media. "Cloud server" just sounds silly. It can be a server that a few people can access, for example the owner when he isn't home. Assuming the ubiquitous NAT in front of that server has been set up to permit outside hosts to originate sessions to it. Which by the way, is not the way most of these in-home NATs are set up.
For those willing to deal with installing and maintaining a server in the home there are both advantages and disadvantages relative to a cloud-based approach. Cost is an advantage in the long haul, although some people may prefer a small monthly charge versus a larger up front investment. And it is obvious that there is more bandwidth for streaming media to devices in the home, IF the content is on the home server. If it is not, then the argument becomes that of downloading a file versus real time streaming; some services sell content for download while others only stream and will not let you save a file. And a few allow you to download and use the file for a limited time before the DRM kills the file.
On the downside, the ability to stream the content on your in-home server to your mobile devices outside the home (i.e. via the Internet) is going to be constrained by the upstream bandwidth of your broadband connection. You can pay for more upstream bandwidth, but you soon reach the point where the could based service is less expensive and works more reliably than the in-home server approach.
And there are a few wild cards in all of this. One of the reasons that cloud services are growing is that they provide an easy way to keep multiple devices synchronized. You can do this with a home server, but you may need to be an IT aware person to configure your serve to do these things.
And then there is the distinct possibility that the cost of the cloud based storage may be ZERO, if the service can make enough money selling content to cover the cost of the Data Centers and bandwidth. There are persistent rumors that the next version of Apple's Mobilme cloud service will be free...
This has absolutely NOTHING to do with the servers Craig keeps mentioning, that Apple wants to set up in NC.
It has everything to do with data centers like the one that Apple has already built in North Carolina, and the property they just bought to double the size of the center... 

The issues are as I outlined previously:

Cost
Convenience
If is cheaper to use the cloud based service than building a home server; if it is easier to use and maintain; and it if provides paid services that are desirable it is highly likely that this approach will dominate.
I have often talked about the huge pile of money on the table for MVPD services. Clearly a big chunk of this money goes to the cost of the content - i.e. subscriber fees. And a smaller chunk of the money goes to support the infrastructure costs.
Where it all gets interesting is if (when) companies like Apple, Netflix or Amazon can offer a compelling alternative to the MVPD services. It's not about consumers spending more money, it is about spending the same amount or even less for an alternative. 

Regards
Craig


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