[opendtv] Rediscovering Off-Air Television
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 9 Dec 2010 14:58:31 -0600
Susan Campbell of TMCNet asks:
"Is this the new trend that will change the viewing landscape? We may not know
for sure until we start to see subscriber prices come down and broadcasters
demand changes. As long as they benefit from more viewers--paid or free--they
can still drive ad dollars, which won't help cable or satellite partners, but
could keep free TV growing."
My take on this is, if some non-negligible fraction of MVPD subscribers goes to
FOTA TV instead, the broadcast channels would probably get an increase in
viewership, since the MVPD defectors would now only have FOTA channels to chose
from. This may give broadcasters some extra leverage in setting ad prices.
At the same time, the FOTA broadcasters who are getting subscription fee
kickbacks from MVPDs would lose some of that revenue, which would encourage
these broadcasters to stabilize or reduce their demands from the MVPDs.
It's hard to say what the net result on the FOTA broadcasters is. The ones not
getting MVPD kickbacks should see increased revenues. The ones who are getting
per-subscriber revenues might end up even. It seems to me that MVPDs and
congloms would be impacted more. Congloms would lose some of the non-OTA
channel revenues, with fewer MVPD subscribers, and MVPDs would lose some
subscription revenues too.
So, bottom line, I would not be surprised to see the congloms showing more
interest in getting a few of their cable channels onto FOTA TV, to recoup some
of the ad revenue they will have lost. All contingent on these trends being
non-negligible.
Bert
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http://www.tvtechnology.com/article/110530
Rediscovering Off-Air Television
by Doug Lung, 12.09.2010.
There is increasing evidence that the number of people using off-air TV has
stopped declining and is now increasing. Every week I see new articles
describing how people are dropping cable and satellite TV and turning to a
combination over-the-air TV and Internet video services such as NetFlix to save
money.
Two stories appearing this week were particularly interesting.
The New York Times article Rabbit Ears Perk Up for Free HDTV by Ben Garvin has
comments from people who dropped cable TV and now rely on free off-air TV,
supplemented by shows downloaded or streamed from the Internet. The article
notes that from April to September, cable and satellites companies had a net
loss of about 330,000 customers.
Richard Schneider, president of Antennas Direct, is quoted saying he expects to
sell 500,000 antennas this year, up from 385,000 in 2009.
Gavin notes, "Some viewers who have decided that they are no longer willing or
able to pay for cable or satellite service, including younger ones, are buying
antennas and tuning in to a surprising number of free broadcast channels."
TMCNet contributing editor Susan J. Campbell was one of the writers who picked
up the NY Times article and commented on it.
In her article Over-the-Air TV Gaining in Popularity she asks, "Is this the new
trend that will change the viewing landscape? We may not know for sure until we
start to see subscriber prices come down and broadcasters demand changes. As
long as they benefit from more viewers--paid or free--they can still drive ad
dollars, which won't help cable or satellite partners, but could keep free TV
growing."
In an opposing viewpoint, Scott Woolley posted an article on
tech.fortune.cnn.com Who to blame for your dropped calls: Try local TV in which
he blasts the FCC saying, "The FCC continues to paper over the fact that the
American system of free television actually guarantees no level of service and
is wildly inefficient."
He argued against must carry and spectrum for broadcasting, saying "America's
reliance on a patchwork of ground-based TV stations means fewer channels for
viewers and fewer airwaves for modern uses."
Woolley's conclusions were not supported by most people commenting on his post.
Many comments were from people in rural areas who depend on broadcast TV. One
said "Since OTA has gone digital it's better than ever." The commenter added
"Shame on you for thinking about your greed when so many people are out of a
job in this bad economy. May a herd of ravaging fire ants find your sock
drawer."
One commenter near Houston complained about poor reception on portable TVs
(mobile DTV should improve that). Another said, "Great idea-why not shut down
TV altogether? There's nothing but garbage out there anyway! Oh wait, that's
the Internet, too."
Whether or not this reported increase in off-air viewing shows up in ratings
will depend on whether it's large enough to overcome normal sample "noise" and
the mix of households used to collect the ratings. It will be interesting to
see the trend when we hit the two year anniversary of the analog shutdown.
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