[opendtv] Radio's metamorphosis
- From: Albert Manfredi <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 1 Dec 2007 15:30:42 -0500
In an interesting piece on NPR yesterday, the interviewee was describing all
the different ways radio programs can be received (e.g. FM, HD Radio, satellite
radio, podcast, Internet). He said that 20 years from now, no one will be
listening to terrestrial radio anymore. The same can probably be said about TV.
This sort of thing always makes me wonder. What are the REAL technical
differences between these systems, and why should anyone make such forecasts?
Boiling this down to essentials, it seems to me that the real functional
differences between these sches are as follows:
1. Satellite radio is nationwide, receivable almost anywhere, and there's lots
of channels available, but otherwise real-time just like terrestrial.
2. Internet radio is global and potentially also recorded for anytime playback.
But it can only be received in fixed locations or hotspots.
3. Podcast (or similar) is purely recorded for non-real-time playback.
There is very little to prevent terrestrial radio from competing in most of
these fronts. If people like national coverage, then terrestrial operators
should offer that. Much like NPR does. If people like podasts, in theory HD
Radio could set aside some bandwidth for that too, in non-real-time (faster or
slower) channels for recording, although I think that's silly. The Internet is
better for those who want to go to the trouble of downloading content.
Like DTT, HD Radio should be able to compete if it (a) makes good use of
multicasting to offer greater choice, and (b) provides nationwide coverage of
material people really like. If there's any truth that "localism" matters to
people, a limited amount of bandwidth could be set aside for that. Just as in
DTT.
Seems to me that to be a successful business in the past 50 years or so, what
you really need is SCALE. Same goes for radio and TV. The mom-and-pop
operations, while some have an unrealistic sentimental attachment to them, have
a tough time of it. People vote with their wallets. In the US, if too much is
made of "localism" in radio and DTT, that will spell its demise. This relates
to arguments about national cap limits, IMO.
Bert
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