[opendtv] Re: Post PC world
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2011 18:40:30 -0500
At 3:59 PM -0600 3/8/11, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
There's a ton of baggage associated with the PC era. And many of the
applications that require a desktop PC or a workstation level laptop
cannot be considered "personal." Clearly there will always be products
that leverage "computers" to deliver task specific solutions like editing
a Hollywood movie or rendering the next Pixar blockbuster.
I keep thinking that what most people really want is a new version
of the old VT100 dumb terminal. In essence, functionally, that's
what the tablets replace. (I said "functionally.") They are thin
clients, which means that they are intended primarily to be access
devices to what the hype-minded now call "the cloud." The client
device has a browser, IP stack, monitor, enough memory to run the
applications locally, and some non-volatile storage. All the heavy
lifting is done elsewhere.
I think Bert is underestimating what a table can do, although the
thin client concept is certainly one of the important things that
devices like this will enable.
Please watch the portion of the iPAD 2 Keynote where they talk about
some of the new iPAD apps, Photobooth, Facetime, iMovie and
especially Garage Band. It starts abut 34 minutes in.
For those who have Macs running Safari, you can watch it on the Apple web site:
http://events.apple.com.edgesuite.net/1103pijanbdvaaj/event/index.html
For those with PCs there's a You Tube version here:
http://www.9to5mac.com/54483/apple-posts-ipad-2-keynote-video/
There is a lot of noise right now suggesting that Apple is going to
make Mobile Me a free service for iOS devices and Macs, when they
open the new data center in North Carolina. One of the more
intriguing concepts I have seen posited, is that Apple will be able
to further reduce the cost of iOS devices by reducing local FLASH
memory and relying on the cloud servers to store your files, which
would then be accessible to all of your devices. I doubt they will
cripple the iPhone and iPad that exist today, but this could be an
important move, if Apple wants to go after the mass market with
cheaper smartphones, iPOD Touches, and tablets.
In this respect, I think Bert is on the right track with his thin
client analogy.
Ultimately, from a user's standpoint, that's not a bad place to go.
For example, why buy and install your own Turbotax if you can pay a
little and get the online version? You could in principle do the
same thing with the entire Office suite. Except for some reason,
that never quite caught on. Microsoft tried many years to make that
happen. Aside from the ubiquitous web-based e-mail systems, office
applications still seem to be installed in individual machines.
(Maybe Microsoft is still trying, with its online version of Office
2010?)
Perhaps much of the "personal" interface will be through these thin
clients in the future. The pendulum swings back to giving all the
control to the guys in the white coats. Like in the 1960s.
Yup. The corporate MIS types lost control for a short period of time
after the PC started showing up on corporate desktops. But the need
for networking put them back in the drivers seat. Now they are being
challenged by "consumerism." That is, the demand from both top level
execs and employees to support these new mobile platforms.
IMHO, the main reason that Microsoft won in the enterprise was that
they showed the MIS types how to regain control of the computers in
their organizations by standardizing on Office and Microsoft's back
end suites. I still hear ads everyday from schools trying to sell
Microsoft certifications for a GREAT CAREER in IT...
And Microsoft also understood that turning a PC into a game machine
gave them an inroad to the consumer, so that they could both work at
home...and play.
The MVPD culture would certainly reinforce such a model.
Not sure about this...
If you are talking about subscription software perhaps.
But people seem to be enjoying the ala carte aspect o buying Apps and
media content for their iOS devices.
What is important is that there is a simple path for upgrades that is
virtually automatic...
And that software SHOULD be very affordable.
It is almost mind boggling what you can do with Garage Band for $5.99.
Regards
Craig
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