[opendtv] Re: Pete Deutschman: Linear TV dips below half of US viewers
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 30 Aug 2015 09:25:47 -0400
On Aug 29, 2015, at 7:00 PM, Albert Manfredi <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Regards
Craig
At most, 23% of all TV is streamed, and this includes linear streams like
WWITV, Watch ESPN, CBS All Access, Sling, and many others.
Try again, Craig. A full 40% is streamed. Same amount is actually streamed as
is viewed linear, and never mind all the PVR and other on demand options. And
these stats are from the beginning of the year.
Prove it.
You have not provided a single convincing source for your numbers, which
magically decreased from more than 50% (i.e. the majority) to 40% overnight.
The 23% number was well documented.
Even you admit broadcasting is not going away in this decade, probably 2-3.
Try to find a single quote where I say this.
On Aug 25, 2015, at 9:43 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Me too. For some time, ATSC 1.0 is going to do just fine. For example, I find
out just today that my son-in-law is cutting the cord all the way. He used to
be a cord shaver. So I've given them some pointers, including the results of
tvfool.com, and options for antennas that should fit their needs. I'm
skeptical that another redo of ATSC broadcast will gain a lot of traction,
and it might instead discourage use of OTA. People can easily jump on OTA
anytime they please, now. Make it difficult, requiring another transition,
and all bets are off.
And the MVPD infrastructure is still doing the heavy lifting.
Broadband heavy lifting? Yes. TV distribution heavy lifting via MPEG-2 TS
broadcast? Not anymore. You don't read articles very carefully, do you Craig?
I keep having to spoonfeed this information back to you.
Sorry Bert, but MVPD systems still distribute the majority of TV content in the
U.S.
I have provided the numbers several times.
So let me feed this quote back to you, since you misread it once again:
"Event though it's a VOD file, it behaves like a live show because people go
in and watch it at the same time," Wheaton said. "It's not inconceivable that
in four to five years, the majority of television is actually watched over an
IP-delivered network."
Show me where this says that the Internet isn't ready, Craig.
That quote just says that large numbers of viewers trying to access the same
VOD file simultaneously tend to cause problems similar to live streams.
Here is a better quote from that article:
Live-TV streaming over broadband is a small-but-growing phenomenon, and the
Internet is ill-prepared for the giant wave of data about to sweep over it in
the years ahead. At least that’s the view of Akamai, a top content delivery
network (CDN) provider that works with a wide range of programmers and
distributors.
Despite the emergence of services such as Sling TV, PlayStation Vue and CBS
All Access, live linear television “hasn’t moved online yet in a big way” and
remains largely the domain of on-demand and episodic TV fare, Bill Wheaton,
vice president and general manager of media at Akamai, said.
...
Here’s how it looks today: Akamai says a typical consumer watching OTT video
via its platform accounts for 10 Megabits per second or more of traffic. When
extended to 5 million users — the equivalent of about four Nielsen ratings
points — that represents about 50 Terabits per second of sustained demand.
That’s more than Akamai delivers today for all of its customers combined.
And it’s not just about linear TV. Apps such as HBO Go and HBO Now (HBO’s new
standalone OTT service) tend to see spikes on Sunday nights when the network
debuts new episodes of its most popular originals.
It merely tells you what I've been telling you. It is contradicting your
claim that we have to wait for decades for the Internet to be ready, and it
says that in 4 or 5 years, which I think is way pessimistic, the majority of
TV will be streamed. As of now, or actually several months ago, in the US,
the same amount is streamed as is being consumed linear. That's 40%.
Prove it.
Furthermore, if you transmit the live content to the same edge servers that
handle the on demand streams, using satellite, the problem of congestion at
the edge servers is no different from what it is for on demand traffic. If
the CDN can manage prime time loads of on demand, they can do likewise for
live. Perhaps ESPN would be well advised to find other OTT outlets than just
Sling TV, to distribute the load and give people alternatives.
Akamai says they are having problems with popular on demand services during
peak traffic periods. Sling customers are complaining about poor video quality
and the inability to access popular live streams.
I just want to point out to you that when Sling TV was being overburdened, I
was having no trouble at all streaming TV. How come, Craig?
You were not trying to access the same program as potentially tens of thousands
of Sling subscribers.
Sling had this same problem some time ago. Their problem stems from the fact
that people subscribe to Sling short term, load their servers down, and then
drop their subscription. So Sling has to resolve this problem. You don't see
ANYONE claiming it'll take decades. Only Craig.
I did see, and posted the article that Sling is continuing to have problems
Tuesday.
It had nothing to do with the issue you mention above.
The time it will take to solve these problems is directly related to the
investment it will take to add the capacity, and improve the delivery protocols
as Akamai discussed.
Regards
Craig
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