[opendtv] Re: PR: I want my DTV
- From: Tom Barry <trbarry@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 01 Jul 2004 09:28:57 -0400
I somewhat think the driver for HDTV in the USA will be the attempt by
cable companies to equate it with digital cable. Thus it will be a
stealth premium service, having an increasing amount of HDTV material
that requires a digital cable subscription and various tiers to get.
The cable companies still have a competitive bandwidth advantage in
this over the satellite folks.
- Tom
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> At 1:37 PM -0400 6/30/04, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
>
>>Craig Birkmaier wrote:
>>
>>
>>> According to the following report, it is DVD, NOT
>>> HDTV that is driving the adoption of new digital
>>> television displays in most areas of the world...
>>
>>I think you seriously misinterpreted what the article
>>is saying. As in:
>>
>>"High-definition television (HDTV) - a subset of
>>the overall DTV market - will eventually have a
>>dramatic impact on consumer education and
>>adoption of digital TV in certain parts of the
>>world."
>
>
> What misinterpretation?
>
> Note the use of the term "eventually."
>
> The reality is that even here in the U.S., TODAY, DVD is a stronger
> driver of purchases of HD capable displays than HD receivers and/or
> program services.
>
> I agree that HD will be a strong driver in the future as it becomes
> more pervasive, ESPECIALLY in non-entertainment applications of
> digital media.
>
> I do not agree that HD entertainment is going to cause any
> significant shift in the mass market for TV displays in the next few
> years. Perhaps in a decade we may see HD become commonplace. For the
> rest of this decade it is going to remain a market niche, closely
> coupled with home theater systems.
>
>>And
>>
>>"At this point, HDTV content delivery, and therefore
>>set adoption, is essentially limited to Australia,
>>Canada, Japan, South Korea, and the United States for
>>the foreseeable future. Digital TV in other parts of
>>the world will continue to be driven by advances in
>>flat-panel displays and the red-hot DVD market, ..."
>
>
> Yup. In the countries listed above there is some HD content
> available. Korea may be the most advanced in terms of peo0ple buying
> HD capable displays and actually watching HD programming. In
> Austrailia there is VERY LITTLE HD content available today, as is the
> case in Japan. Canada is mostly getting its HD content from the U.S.
> In all of these countries, DVD is the dominant driver of sales of HD
> capable displays today.
>
>
>>Bottom line is that only in those parts of the world
>>where HDTV is unavailable will DVD *alone* drive the
>>adoption of so-called digital TV, according to this
>>article.
>
>
> Nobody said anything about "alone." The dominant driver in my
> purchase of an HD capable display was the desire for a "watchable"
> big screen image. The integration of a deinterlacer for SDTV was the
> dominant driver of my purchase. DVD was second. HD is now on the
> horizon, but still mostly unimportant to my family.
>
> Ther are other drivers as well. Perhaps the most significant is the
> appeal of flat or very thin cabinets that take up less space in the
> room. For others, it is the ability to display the progressive scan
> output of a PC, which can act as a DVR, source of content (tuners and
> libraries of images and music), and a portal to IP based services. HD
> is just one of many factors that are causing people to buy HD capable
> displays.
>
>
>>So when you say "in most areas of the world," it's
>>only true because "most areas" won't see HDTV for
>>some time!
>
>
>
> We even disagree here.
>
> Because of the success of HD as a niche service in the U.S. and a few
> other countries, and especially because a significant amount of
> premium content is now being made available in HD, it is likely that
> HD services will be available in virtually all developed countries in
> the next 2-3 years. The most likely form of distribution for this
> content will be satellite. Cable will also be a factor in some areas.
> And HD-DVD is just around the corner, IF the major content providers
> elect to support the new standard.
>
> The reality is the same around the world. HD is now, and will become
> an important driver of premium television services in the near
> future. This should not be confused with the continuing mass market
> for SDTV. As Mark Schubin pointed out in this week's memo:
>
>
>>- NPD Intelect, which measures sales to consumers (except Wal-Mart,
>>catalogs, and Internet) reported 404,660 CRT-based projection TVs in
>>the first quarter and 56,623 microdisplay-based (DLP and different
>>forms of LCD) projection TVs. LCD 27-inch and up exceeded plasma.
>>But CRT still has a roughly 11 times more units sold than non-CRT:
>
>
> The mass market is not going HD anytime soon.
>
> Regards
> Craig
>
>
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