[opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
- From: "Barry Wilkins" <barry.barrywilkins@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 10 Jan 2009 13:42:57 +1300
John,
I know that there are many superficial arguments which apparently contradict
the consequences of peak oil. However, there are no sound arguments that
state that when the oil becomes scarce the price stays the same. The point
is, it gets expensive - very expensive. Those wells you mentioned they can
re-open, will quickly diminish in output even if they get more oil at
elevated cost. It is the cost going inexorably up as the expense of
extraction increases that is the problem. Even then, no matter how hard they
pump and with what ever technology, after the global peak, they will not be
able to supply the quantity of oil to meet demand, even if the demand stayed
constant (which it shall not).
There are no professional people in the oil industry (or out of it) of any
reputable standing, who advocate the hypothesis of rapid subterrainian
synthesis of oil over short time scales. If any supposition should be
dismissed, it is this one.
With regard to your country of residence, which I believe is Mexico, I have
it on good account that although it is a current oil exporter to the US for
instance (around 11% of US imports), the largest field, Cantarell, is on a
very rapid serious decline after peaking and that Mexico is likely to be a
non exporter in less than 2 years.
The USA peaked in 1970 as predicted on time by the famous Mr Hubbert and
then declined continuously no matter what technology has since been
utilized. I understand the USA imports more than 70% of its oil now.
Also, take note that the global peak of discovery of oil occured in about
1960. No significant fields of consequence (such as the super giants of
Saudi Arabia) have been found since, no matter what fancy new technology has
been used. This is because geologists inherently knew where the best places
to look first. The world has been surveyed in great depth.
The UK North Sea oil fields have been in relentless decline for years and
ouput only about a fifth that which they did at peak, even with the latest
technology. The UK is in trouble, no doubt about it!
The argument of peak oil is not that we will run out. That will not happen
for quite some time. It is that after peak occurs, the price will go
inexorably up with the scarcity no matter what you do.
You can have a reduction in demand but that will occur due to economic
collapse which is directly attributable to the high cost. Hence the
consequences are there, stark and real.
But of course, I do not expect anybody to take my word for it. Read the IEA
report, December 2008, and then have a rethink.
Barry
On Sat, Jan 10, 2009 at 11:52 AM, John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>wrote:
> I'd recommend "Serving Two Masters" on Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.
>
>
>
> What gets me about most "peak oil" arguments is that they tend to ignore
> the plain realities that when oil prices get higher (which I am not
> advocating, but which is something that happens when there is more demand
> than supply) previously capped oil wells that the drillers found to be
> uneconomic to run with low prices, suddenly become profitable again. And,
> there is more incentive to use shale oil, synthetic fuels, even turning
> foodstocks (economically) into oil.
>
>
>
> Then, there is also the question as to how and on what time scale the Earth
> makes more oil. That oil comes from crushed plants and dinosaurs is at this
> point, only a loose hypothesis, at best. I can't say that the Earth
> continually generates oil on a rapid time scale, in a fashion that will
> solve all our problems, but I can't say that isn't the case.
>
>
>
> I can also say that the end of petroleum for transportation (as a former
> reporter covering transportation) had been predicted for 1919, 1923, 1926
> (Spindletop took care of that for a few years), 1929, 1939, 1947, 1954, and
> on and on …
>
>
>
> And, I'm not a big user of oil. I own no car, use public transit, walk,
> and ride a bicycle. I have no heating or a/c at home, and my electric bill
> is about $7 for two months. And, the country I reside in is a net exporter
> of oil. Oil fueled all but the earliest stage of the industrial revolution,
> and is even more important in the Information Age. It also made what we
> know as suburbia possible.
>
>
>
> John Willkie
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> *De:* opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] *En
> nombre de *Barry Wilkins
> *Enviado el:* Friday, January 09, 2009 2:35 PM
>
> *Para:* opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> *Asunto:* [opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
>
>
>
> That book, John, is "The Long Emergency" by James Howard Kunstler.
> Specifically pages 232 and 233 with reference to Fanny Mae etc. Riveting
> reading in my view. But should you think he is but a lone voice, I suggest
> you also refer to another excellent book, "The last oil shock" by David
> Strahan . Or "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew R. Simmons or "The End of
> Oil" by Paul Roberts.
> All the above authors come from quite different professional backgrounds
> and yet all have done intensive studies of this subject.
>
> I would be interested to know your and others opinions of their writings if
> you have a chance to peruse them.
>
> Barry
>
> On Sat, Jan 10, 2009 at 7:39 AM, John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> wrote:
>
> Barry;
>
>
>
> Is that book "Serving Two Masters" by Peter Wallison?
>
>
>
> John
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> *De:* opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] *En
> nombre de *Barry Wilkins
> *Enviado el:* Friday, January 09, 2009 3:58 AM
>
>
> *Para:* opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> *Asunto:* [opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
>
>
>
> John, it must be of considerable concern to you that you believe your new
> government is likely to dither and behave indecisively. As I understand it,
> the US economy (and my own) is somewhat in the "poo" and likely getting more
> crappy as the year progresses. I would have thought this is not the time to
> be giving away free stuff unless it is food, clothing or shelter.
>
> I am currently reading a fascinating book that predicted the demise of
> Freddy Mac and Fanny Mae. Ironically, a particular paragraph started " By
> the time you read this book Freddy Mac and Fanny Mae" etc. Yes they have,
> and this book was published in 2005! It also predicted that if such an event
> should happen, as is likely, through a cascading effect, the world economy
> is likely to suffer and the US economy very seriously. I am affaid this book
> has many other dire warnings related to the phenomenon of "Peak Oil" and
> before anybody labels me an alarmist I should point out that much of what
> has been written is substantiated by the latest intensive study by the IEA
> (Dec 2008).
>
> So, when your and my country's economies do eventually recover we will
> likely be lumbered with the restrictions of energy starvation.
>
> To get back to your original point about decisiveness, yes, I hope that
> there is an immediate wake up by the powers that be to the looming dangers
> ahead and act decisively accordingly.
>
> Regards
> Barry Wilkins
>
> On Fri, Jan 9, 2009 at 8:12 PM, John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> wrote:
>
> Good points all, Barry. Basically, it's a forewarning of how the coming
> administration will deal with the smallest forms of adversity; they will
> surrender or delay making even moderately firm decisions.
>
>
>
> I was thinking after our earlier exchange on this list that the entities
> "most hurt" by this will be the television stations whose viewers "skew"
> either old or poor. Nobody is guaranteed television, or even free
> television. We are very much unlike, say, the UK on that point. Come to
> think of it, Freeview did give away receivers …
>
>
>
> John Willkie
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> *De:* opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] *En
> nombre de *Barry Wilkins
> *Enviado el:* Thursday, January 08, 2009 10:01 PM
>
>
> *Para:* opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> *Asunto:* [opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
>
>
>
> Why, exactly, should at the very last minute, a delay be made to account
> for all those who must surely have been adequately forewarned of this
> momentous change?
>
> Those coupons your government generously distributes to the needy are
> something rather unique to the USA. I do not believe any other countries had
> such a handout to the populace. I paid my NZ $399 for my STB and I consider
> it well worth it. Your STBs are so cheap in comparison even without the
> subsidy, I fail to see what the fuss is about. As I mentioned on one other
> occasion, the cost surely must be no more than a good night out at a
> restaurant for 2.
>
> So, if adequate warning has been given and the STBs are dirt cheap anyway,
> why not get on with it. A certain proportion will accept it is their own
> fault for leaving it too long and go get cable or sky. The others will no
> doubt zoom off to the nearest store to get an STB at any cost.
>
> Reception with dubious antennas may be another story...
>
> Good luck with your transition!
>
> Barry Wilkins
>
> On Fri, Jan 9, 2009 at 12:37 PM, John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> wrote:
>
> Tom;
>
> It is VERY DANGEROUS to personalize attorneys working for private clients
> as
> if they were something more than wage slaves advocating for a well-paying
> client.
>
> Eric Holder as AG is a different matter, at least as pertains to the pardon
> of Marc Rich. Holder was working on a discretionary matter and was
> supposed
> to be representing the United States, not the Democratic Party. Never
> befor
> has someone who was a fugitive from justice been pardoned. I suspect his
> nomination hearings will largely be a rubber-stamping session in the
> current
> climate.
>
> Also, it's a non-sequitur to be in favor of an empty vessel (Obama) because
> you were disgusted with the Bush Administration. George Bush hasn't been
> on
> a ballor since 1984.
>
> When you're an empty vessel that people pour their dreams into, it doesn't
> take much to disaffect people. Making no decisions is easier than making
> decisions.
>
> John Willkie
>
> -----Mensaje original-----
>
> De: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] En
>
> nombre de Tom Barry
> Enviado el: Thursday, January 08, 2009 3:13 PM
> Para: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Asunto: [opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
>
>
> I strongly supported Obama due to my disgust with many actions of the
> Bush administration.
>
> But Obama certainly is not getting off to a very good start on some
> issues that I care about. Delaying the transition is a very bad idea
> right now.
>
> And two of the people he is appointing to the justice department are a
> couple of my least favorite IP monopoly lawyers that prosecuted the
> carpet bombing of mp3 download lawsuits and defended the Mickey Mouse
> interminable copyright extension before the Supreme Court. It looks
> like Obama is going to go with Biden's position on these types of issues.
>
> So I guess the honeymoon is already over for me. <sigh>
>
> - Tom
>
>
> John Willkie wrote:
> > Elections have consequences, but I thought that we only had one president
> at
> > a time. Delaying the inevitable will do about nothing to get people to
> buy
> > converter boxes. I always thought the idea of doing the transition in
> the
> > middle of a Nielsen sweep would be interesting.
> >
> >
> >
> > John Willkie, who notes that anything that Ed Markey supports is by
> > experience, very foolish.
> >
> >
> >
> > _____
> >
> > De: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> En
> > nombre de James Albro
> > Enviado el: Thursday, January 08, 2009 12:13 PM
> > Para: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Asunto: [opendtv] Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
> >
> >
> >
> > Here we go...
> >
> > Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
> >
> >
> > By John Eggerton -- Broadcasting & Cable, 1/8/2009 2:30:00 PM
> >
> >
> > Related:
> > The <http://www.broadcastingcable.com/Community/DTV+Countdown/48696.html
> >
> > DTV Countdown: Complete Coverage of the DTV Transition
> > Markey: Feb. <http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6627445.html>
> 17
> > DTV Date May Have To Move
> >
> > President-elect Barack Obama has asked Congress to extend the Feb. 17 DTV
> > transition date.
> >
> > Citing problems with the DTV-to-analog converter box program and
> "inadequate
> > funding" of government DTV education programs, John Podesta, co-chair of
> the
> > Obama-Biden transition team, requested that "the cut-off date for analog
> > signals should be reconsidered and extended."
> >
> > That is according to a letter (click
> > <
> http://www.broadcastingcable.com/contents/pdf/Podesta%20DTV%20Letter.pdf>
> > here to view) being sent Thursday to the chairs and ranking Republicans
> on
> > the House and Senate Committees overseeing communications (The House
> Energy
> > & Commerce Committee and Senate Commerce Committee).
> >
> > Saying that only 28 days after the inauguration Americans would wake up
> to
> > find their analog TV's no longer able to receive an over-the-air
> signal-and
> > pointing to the decision on the date made in 2005 and implemented by the
> > outgoing administration-Podesta urged them to "consider a change to the
> > legislatively mandated cut-off date."
> >
> > He said that funds to support the conversion are "woefully inadequate,"
> > particularly to address the problems of seniors and low income viewers.
> >
> > He also suggested that there would be money from the president-elect's
> > economic recovery package that would help address the funding shortfalls.
> >
> > Consumers
> >
> <
> http://www.broadcastingcable.com/contents/pdf/CU_DTV%20Letter%20to%20House%<http://www.broadcastingcable.com/contents/pdf/CU_DTV%20Letter%20to%20House%25>
> > 20Commerce_FINAL.PDF> Union, which called for a similar move Wednesday
> > after consultation with the transition, has suggested moving the date to
> > midsummer.
> >
> > C 2009, Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All
> > Rights Reserved.
> >
> >
>
>
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