[opendtv] Re: OTA and MVPD competition
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2008 11:08:58 -0500
At 8:58 AM -0500 2/11/08, John Shutt wrote:
----- Original Message ----- From: "Craig Birkmaier" <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
They could not use part. It would take almost the entire channel
(at least 12-15 Mbps to equal the HD quality delivered by ESPN. For
this they would potentially grow ratings by the 15% that ESPN lost
when MNF moved to cable.
First, using 720p, I doubt that any cable system is devoting 15 Mbps
to ESPN-HD. Second, there is no reason why the *free to air*
version of ESPN couldn't be widescreen 480p, which would be easy to
create from the 720p version, and would compress nicely and take up
even less space than NTSC derived 480i, and telling their viewers if
they wan HD then they PAY for it through cable or DBS.
John
Your idea is interesting, however, I can think of several reasons why
this would not work.
Cable is giving ESPN-HD about 12 Mbps, possibly more. perhaps someone
with the right tools could verify this.
Most cable subscribers will still be watching the downconverted 4:3
NTSC version via extended basic, not the HD feed . Over time this
will change, however, until cable drops the analog tiers this will
continue to be the case.
Cable will not agree to the current and future demands of ABC/ESPN
for subscriber fees if they do not have exclusivity. They would not
be happy if most of their viewers were watching a 4:3 NTSC version
while ABC affiliates offered either widescreen 480P or 720P. I
sincerely doubt that Disney could make more money by offering a
reduced resolution version via OTA stations.
If OTA stations could use H.264 the prospects would be better. The
ONLY think I can see happening is a low bit rate H.264 feed for
mobile viewers using the new MPH standard, and I can virtually
guarantee that this would be a PAID subscription service.
In other words, broadcasters are NOT going to kill the retransmission
consent golden goose by direct competition with cable to deliver
programming to fixed receivers, but they may well attempt to develop
a subscription package for the NEW MPH service.
I'll even go so far as to predict that most bits will be allocated to
the MPH service within five years of the date when MPH broadcasts
begin; stations will use only 2-4 Mbps of the total to maintain one
program stream in the free and clear. This is probably the only way
that TV broadcasters can survive.
Regards
Craig
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