[opendtv] Re: (No Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 10:30:37 -0400

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "OpenDTV (E-mail)" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Fri, 8 Oct 2004 14:46:17 -0400

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

> When you have the power of the NAB, you can use it to
> establish unobtainable goals. It took them all of two
> months after the FCC announced their transition
> schedule to completely scuttle it.

Assuming this is even true, that the transition
schedule is totally "scuttled," it would have been
caused not by "regulatory" issues, but rather by
plain and simple lobbying efforts.

Which is exactly what I had said. Which was:

> > The obstacles are NOT the regulatory issues you
> > keep claiming, but rather the guts of Congressmen.

Since we finally seem to agree that it is only a matter
of lobbying, the only disagreement left is whether or
not Congress and the FCC will bow to this pressure. I
contend that they will at most delay the end of the
transition, but that there should be no reason to do
so beyond the original 1/1/2007.

If the NAB's argument about allowing analog cable users
to be counted had any merit (i.e. that by allowing
analog cable, people would lose interest in DTV), they
would have to push to make STBs with NTSC outputs
illegal. Only then would all viewers truly *have* to
get interested in DTV right away. I think that position
would be extreme enough that even the clueless would
get a clue.

> But the most telling development from the Stern
> announcement is that Viacom is now rumored to be
> looking at buying Sirius. So while my prediction that
> CBS would move its best content to premium TV may not
> have hit the mark exactly*, they may be ready to
> migrate from Free Radio (aka Infinity Broadcasting)
> to pay radio.

Viacom's move is fairly risky, given that Sirius had
reported been losing money hand over fist. How much
have they lost so far? It was a huge number. Your
position would make more sense to me if Sirius had
been a rousing success.

Will Howard Stern be enough to make a difference?

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