[opendtv] Re: (No Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 10:30:37 -0400

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "OpenDTV (E-mail)" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2004 12:04:22 -0400

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

> It is you, who are missing the reality that
> Berlin is in Germany, not a market in the U.S.

As far as I can tell, the US DTT system is now
in about the same place that mabb was in Berlin,
on or about 28 February of 2003, except even
*more* favorable to analog OTA users here.

That is to say, all analog channels still
exist here, as well as all digital channels. In
Berlin, on 28 Feb 2003, only 6 of 12 analog
channels remained, and all DTV channels were
on the air at that time (7 multiplexes).

And yet, in Berlin, at this point in their
transition, sales of STBs dropped precipitously,
and only picked up again when folks saw a
complete shutdown of analog right around the
corner. It seemed that for lots of OTA users
there, 6 analog channels were okay, at least in
the short term.

> We can speculate all day - we've already been
> doing it for nearly a decade - about what
> COULD happen IF the marketplace and regulatory
> environment were different.

And I claim that the regulatory environment is
not nearly as important a driver as you think it
is. What mattered there, to make the transition
work, was to delete analog service. Pure and
simple. The behavior of Berliner OTA users was
identical to US OTA users in every respect.

That is why I wasn't *at all* impressed when the
end of their transition was so hyped up. They
ended it merely by pulling the plug. It wasn't
like the masses had rushed out to buy their
STBs *thereby* causing analog service to become
unnecessary. Quite the opposite happened.

And it can work just as well here. This is just
another example of cause and effect that IMO
you aren't getting right.

> And NTSC IS NOT going away. It will continue to
> be the mass media front end to drive people to
> other sources of entertainment, where the
> conglomerates can make huge profits.

That would be incredibly silly. There's no
reason for the McCains of Congress to let
broadcasters retain their NTSC channel as a second
revenue stream. That truly would be a freebie.
And there's no indication that Congress is
leaning that way, *except* to extend the shutoff
date for the transition. And also, retaining
NTSC prevents the DTT system from working as it
well as it should, due to all the co-channel
interference problems it has created, which
keep DTT power lower than it ought to be.

> How can you say this with ANY authority. It is
> impossible to conclude that those who still rely
> on OTA will NOT move to a MPVD.

Why on earth would they? Do you really think they
haven't had the opportunity in the past 22 years?
The reality is that those who use OTA now would
be considerably *less* likely to become addicts
of subscription services if the DTT service gave
them more than what their current OTA solution
provides. It's totally illogical to assume
otherwise, unless DTT is too difficult to receive.
Which appears to no longer be the case.

Bert
 
 
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