[opendtv] Re: News: Tuning In Mobile TV--Chinese Style
- From: "Bob Miller" <robmxa@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2008 14:03:53 -0500
On Thu, Feb 28, 2008 at 12:40 PM, John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
> No, Bob. Once again, you set the bar high for what you favor, and set it
> low for what you don't favor.
>
>
>
> If you are adding 50% to the $10 per day, you need to add 50% to the $300.
>
What $300.
>
>
> The wage figure I gave you is actually the URBAN wage; the average pay in
> rural areas is lower.
>
>
>
> Also, since I listen to news all the time, I know that China has done some
> things recently to cut wage increases and hopefully inflation.
>
>
>
> China also probably has more taco-eaters than the U.S. population. But,
> the U.S. cellphone penetration is now 80%. Remember Dermot's prediction
> that it won't get that high? I don't think that China has 80% cellphone
> penetration, even with Chinese-sourced cellphones.
>
>
>
I didn't say penetration I said "users". The fact is that there are far more
cell phone users in China than total population in the US. In 2005 it was
440 million in China and 220 million in the US. What do you think it is
today after 3 more years of radical growth in China? Lets say 650 million.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0933605.html
This article says 600 million in 2007. I was thinking that if that many
Chinese can afford cell phones and their monthly bills that many can afford
a $25 OTA DTV receiver or a $100 TV.
In fact in China "Ownership of televisions and radios exceed 400 million and
500 million.TV Ownership rate for families reaches 98%"
http://www.ccbn.tv/question/question.asp
I think they can now and even more so later will be able to afford the
receive devices for mobile, portable and fixed DTV.
> China's government thinks the biggest problem with the Chinese economy is
> inflation and they are trying to do something about it. If I read what you
> say below correctly, you believe that inflation is an asset.
>
> The best thing the Chinese could do to stop wages from going up is to
decouple the Yuan from the dollar. The resulting instant increase in prices
of 50% or more for all exports, read exports to the US and the rest of Asia,
would cause a true recession possibly depression in China that would stop
wage increases in their tracks. They are doing that a wee little bit. Their
rulers would like to keep there heads attached.
In other words they risk their necks if they try to stop the merry-go-round
sort of why no one wanted to stop the housing merry-go-round in the US
though we all knew about it for years.
> Electronics get cheaper over time, sure.
>
The Chinese have the money and have the interest in OTA TV such that they
will buy a billion OTA receivers without a mandate over the next five years.
Bob Miller
BTW Inflation comes about from either printing too much money or having it
change hands too fast. It cost the Chinese leaders nothing to jaw about
stopping inflation but to actually do it means not paying their government
workers, read solders, or slowing the economy. Neither is neck risk free.
>
>
> John Willkie
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> *De:* opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] *En
> nombre de *Bob Miller
> *Enviado el:* Thursday, February 28, 2008 9:24 AM
>
> *Para:* opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> *Asunto:* [opendtv] Re: News: Tuning In Mobile TV--Chinese Style
>
>
>
> "Real" is a moving target. Wages in China are growing at 15% or more a
> year. Couple that with the vastly over valued US dollar in comparison to the
> Chinese Yuan or 50% IMO means that your $10 a day is really $15 and will be
> $17.25 next year after the Olympics. And the devices that they will buy to
> receive OTA DTV mobile or otherwise are being made in China and will be very
> inexpensive. List price for an HD OTA receiver was pegged at $25 a year ago.
>
>
> Also they have a lot of people so maybe a small portion say 300 million
> make far more than $15 a day since that is the average in a country where
> maybe 500 million make less than a $1 a day.
>
> China already has more cell phone users than the US has population. I
> expect that in a few years they will have more OTA DTV receivers than the US
> population as well.
>
> Bob Miller
>
> On Thu, Feb 28, 2008 at 11:59 AM, John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> wrote:
>
> Wow. Will this be a "bigger thing" and lead to adoption, unlike – say –
> the hype about the mobile broadcasts of the last World Cup?
>
>
>
> Time to get real. The average wage in China is less than $10 a day.
> Don't pay rent or buy food or anything for a month, and the average person
> can afford one of these things. Or – perhaps – you can buy a used TV set
> for $20, and you can still eat.
>
>
>
> "This would also be a boon for mobile TV around the world. Despite success
> in countries like Japan, Korea and Italy, which began broadcasting mobile
> digital TV as early as 2005, the technology has yet to take off worldwide."
>
>
>
>
> Makes one wonder just how that "success" is defined.
>
>
>
> John Willkie
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> *De:* opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] *En
> nombre de *Bob Miller
> *Enviado el:* Thursday, February 28, 2008 6:57 AM
> *Para:* opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> *Asunto:* [opendtv] Re: News: Tuning In Mobile TV--Chinese Style
>
>
>
> I was just going to post this when I found yours. Good article but it only
> skims the surface. It is the wild wild far west China is. Read this
> frustrated account by one writer on the present situation in China. I try to
> keep informed but even people near the top in China don't seem to know what
> is going on in China and it keeps changing even faster then their acronyms.
> One of these acronyms is and has been on and off the air in the US since
> November using an STA.
>
>
> http://www.engadgetmobile.com/2008/01/14/china-ignores-standards-group-presses-on-with-weird-network-for/
>
> Bob Miller
>
> On Thu, Feb 28, 2008 at 8:13 AM, Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
>
>
> http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/china-mobile-tv-tech-wireless-cx_ew_0227chinawire.html?partner=alerts
>
> Tuning In Mobile TV--Chinese Style
> Elizabeth Woyke 02.27.08, 6:00 PM ET
>
> Less than a generation ago, Chinese villagers crowded around
> newspapers pasted to walls in the center of town to read the latest
> news. But by this August, millions of Chinese will watch
> up-to-the-minute Olympic contests on their own handheld mobile TVs.
>
> Many Chinese can already catch analog television signals on some
> handheld devices. The Chinese government, however, intends to use the
> Olympics to showcase the next wave of digital mobile TV, based on
> standards developed in China.
>
> Huaqi, a Beijing manufacturer of handheld devices, is planning to
> build inexpensive, user-friendly portable media players and
> navigation devices. Four different models, priced around $300 apiece,
> will debut in June, says Guo Hongzhi, Huaqi's general manager of
> resource management. Outfitted with 4.3-inch screens, they will also
> be able to play music and video and will eventually incorporate
> global positioning satellite data and wi-fi.
>
> Some of the nuts-and-bolts technology, however, is coming from
> elsewhere. Alon Ironi runs Siano Mobile Silicon, an Israeli firm that
> makes the specialty TV receiver chips that receive signals encoded
> using the unique Chinese standards. Siano's chips can receive both
> satellite and terrestrial signals--an unusual combination that will
> eventually make the network more affordable, Ironi predicts. For now,
> that's hardly a concern: The Chinese government plans to subsidize
> the mobile digital TV service for the first year to whet Chinese
> users' enthusiasm for the technology.
>
> "Every handheld device with a screen will have digital TV in a couple
> of years," says Ironi. "We are putting emphasis on China, where we
> have a few very powerful partners."
>
> The Olympics promise to be a picture-perfect showcase for China's
> digital mobile TV service. Work on digital TV has been going on for
> several years. Public trials in 35 cities are slated to begin in
> April. By the time of the highly anticipated Aug. 8 opening day of
> the games, China plans to be broadcasting digital mobile television
> to 65 cities throughout the country.
>
> The magnitude of the Chinese mobile market, the largest in the world,
> with more than 540 million subscribers, means that the summertime
> experiment could turn into big business.
>
> This would also be a boon for mobile TV around the world. Despite
> success in countries like Japan, Korea and Italy, which began
> broadcasting mobile digital TV as early as 2005, the technology has
> yet to take off worldwide.
>
> Mobile TV has big challenges. Receiver chips must be energy-efficient
> to preserve battery life--an important consideration in any mobile
> device. At the same time, they must be sensitive enough to transform
> even weak TV signals into clear images and function in sheltered
> places, like garages, and at moderate speeds, such as on trains or in
> fast-moving cars.
>
> Clashing standards have slowed adoption. Like many cellular
> technologies, mobile TV standards differ by region, forming an
> alphabet soup of acronyms: wireless technology company Qualcomm's
> MediaFLO in the U.S., DVB-H (Digital Video Broadcasting for
> Handhelds) in Europe, T-DMB (Terrestrial Digital Multimedia
> Broadcast) in Korea, and ISDB-T (Integrated Services Digital
> Broadcasting - Terrestrial) in Japan and Brazil. The standards are
> largely incompatible.
>
> That fragmentation extends to business models. There are "free to
> air" services, which, like basic TV channels, can be picked up by any
> device with the right chip or receiver--no service provider
> necessary. Particularly popular in Latin America, the Middle East and
> parts of Asia, these channels generally offer the same programs a
> home TV would show for free. Then there's the paid model, predominant
> in the U.S., in which mobile carriers provide premium TV shows to
> subscribers for a fee.
>
> China, not surprisingly, is forging its own path, one that mixes free
> and paid access. Its unique standard, CMMB (China Multimedia Mobile
> Broadcasting), is digital, based on homegrown technology and
> specifically designed for mobile broadcasting. It has the coveted
> approval of the State Administration for Radio, Film and Television.
> Signals can be broadcast from towers and via satellites. Other
> Chinese chip makers, including InnoFidei and Telepath Technologies,
> are also developing products around the standard.
>
> This summer, there will be only nine or 10 channels. CMB Satellite, a
> Hong Kong-based affiliate of Dish Network, has been tapped to supply
> the programming, including content from China's state broadcaster
> CCTV--host of the Olympics--and from local broadcasters. In April
> 2009, the service will expand to around 30 channels and start
> charging monthly subscriptions.
>
> Proponents say China is a natural market for mobile TV. Siano's Ironi
> predicts the technology will be as popular in China as it is in
> Japan, where 10% of the population, or 12 million people, regularly
> watch mobile TV. "As one of the tech initiatives the [Chinese]
> government is pushing related to the Olympics, the technology will
> certainly gain awareness," says Mike Wolf, a research director at ABI
> Research.
>
> It worked in Italy. During the 2006 World Cup, Italy spearheaded a
> similar campaign, ramping up coverage and rolling out new video
> phones to showcase the European mobile TV standard, DVB-H. Despite a
> few early glitches, Italy has now become one of the most advanced
> markets for mobile TV.
>
> A push in China could make 2008 the year mobile TV finally hits its
> stride. Wolf predicts the number of mobile TV subscribers worldwide
> will reach 462 million by 2012, up from a mere 23.8 million today.
> Asian markets, particularly China, will drive most of the growth as
> phone processors and screens improve and network access gets faster
> and cheaper, he says. "It's a greenfield opportunity," says Wolf.
>
> For those Chinese not able to get their hands on the new digital
> mobile handheld devices, there's still old-fashioned analog
> broadcasts. Sam Sheng, the chief technology officer of Telegent, a
> Sunnyvale, Calif.-based start-up that makes the chips, says Telegent
> has sold 2.5 million chips to manufacturers, including ZTE, which put
> the chips in $150 handsets. Sheng expects the older and new
> technologies to coexist until China phases out analog TV, possibly
> around 2015.
>
> "It's a way to watch your favorite soap opera today without waiting
> for a billion-dollar infrastructure buildout," says Sheng.
>
> He's expecting a boost from the Olympics too. "The average Joes,"
> Sheng predicts, "will watch it on our handsets."
>
>
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