[opendtv] Re: News: The Internet revolution is about to be televised
- From: "Ralph P. Manfredo" <rmanfredo@xxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 10:23:55 -0800
Craig:
For some reason your email keep arriving with either misspellings as in the
first sentence below, but also with =20 embedded in he text. It makes it
difficult to read. Only your emails seem to have this problem. All others
are OK with the recent exception of a couple emails from Prasad where the
email looked like a binary dump. Any idea what is causing this? BTW, I use
Outlook 2003.
Ralph
Ralph P. Manfredo
President and CEO
rmanfredo@xxxxxxxx
************************************************************************
BroadBand Networks Corporation
2530 Berryessa Road, No. 237
San Jose, CA 95050
Phone: 408.988.2060
Fax: 408.988.2188
Cell: 559.289.2669
www.bbnc.com
Leaders in MPEG-2 and MPEG-4 video over ATM and IP Networks
************************************************************************
-----Original Message-----
From: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
Behalf Of Craig Birkmaier
Sent: Tuesday, February 22, 2005 6:26 AM
To: OpenDTV Mail List
Subject: [opendtv] News: The Internet revolution is about to be televised
The Internet revolution is about to be televised =46ebruary 22, 2005 12:00am
Source: All material is subject to Copyright.
Sunday Business:
AFTER dominating the world's living rooms for=20 more than half a century,
the television age is=20 drawing to a close. It will be replaced by=20
internet television, which will bear as much=20 relation to television as
the small screen did to=20 radio. And guess who is a big force in this=20
revolution? None other than Bill Gates, who=20 transformed the world with
his software. And even=20 sleepy BT is at the forefront of this radical=20
technology.
Internet television - internet protocol=20 television (IPTV) to give it its
full name - is=20 the next big thing. It should not be confused=20 with
those jerky and fuzzy video clips on a PC.=20 IPTV will provide a picture at
least as good as=20 television from digital cable or satellite.
But the real difference between traditional=20 television and the new medium
is that IPTV offers=20 viewers a two-way street. Instead of passively=20
watching one-size-fits-all television channels,=20 viewers will be able to
see whatever they want,=20 choosing from libraries of millions of movies
and=20 videos. Today's multi-channel choice will seem as=20 restrictive in
content and as archaic as the=20 early days of the BBC when newscasters
wore=20 dinner jackets and viewers were limited to one=20 channel.
Because of the immense choice, the new internet=20 televisions will need
special software to help=20 viewers select the content that interests
them=20 from the ocean of programmes on offer.
Nor is IPTV just another way to access the=20 internet. According to
soon-to-be-released=20 IPTV-related statistics from the British Market=20
Research Bureau (BMRB) the internet and=20 television sectors are beginning
to converge to=20 produce a new medium that is different from=20 either of
its predecessors. Less of a private=20 medium than the internet as viewed on
a PC, the=20 new medium will be used for shared entertainment=20 for the
household.
The convergence of television and the internet to=20 create IPTV is no
longer some white-coated=20 laboratory genius's idea of something that we=20
will adopt in the future once the bugs have been=20 ironed out. It is a
technology that has been=20 perfected by world players and is about to be=20
launched across several continents. The=20 infrastructure needed to provide
IPTV is in=20 place. Millions of homes have broadband internet=20
connections and companies such as Microsoft have=20 developed the computing
power needed to turn=20 television sets into IPTV receivers.
Internet television would seem fanciful, but for=20 the interest and
investment in it by Microsoft's=20 Gates. He has emerged as IPTV's greatest
prophet=20 and has been making bullish predictions about the=20 future of a
technology where Microsoft has a head=20 start. Gates recently said that
consumers would=20 be able to select the highlights from sports=20 events
themselves and that viewers should have=20 control of the coverage of
events. He added that=20 consumers should also be able to text or video=20
conference friends when watching events or shows=20 from different
locations. Gates says that this=20 kind of innovation has a terrific
consumer=20 response.
Gates has proven his ability for being able to=20 spot commercially
successful technologies years=20 before they emerge in the marketplace. One
of his=20 most oft-quoted saying is that people=20 overestimate what
technology can achieve in six=20 months but underestimate what will be
achieved in=20 six years. This ability to hit a moving target=20 years in
advance of everybody else has enabled=20 Microsoft to establish a similar
lead in IPTV to=20 the one it had in desktop computing 20 years ago.
Microsoft began to invest in internet television=20 a decade ago when most
broadcasters thought the=20 technology so risible, futuristic and
problematic=20 as to be a complete non-starter. But Gates knew=20 the
personal computing industry was on an=20 inevitable collision course with
television=20 broadcasting, a view that may explain some of the=20 animosity
that has existed in the past between=20 Gates and global media tycoon Rupert
Murdoch.
Gates has been confident that Microsoft's=20 investment in internet
television would pay off=20 one day, despite the industry view that the=20
technology was a non-starter and destined to be a=20 casualty of the dotcom
crash of four year ago. He=20 recently said that Microsoft does not make=20
short-term plans and behave like a day trader.
"We are believers in the power of software.=20 Anywhere we see a chance for
great software,=20 we're going to invest in it and we're going to=20 stick
with it. It's very important for us to have=20 gotten in early to do a
television platform.=20 Since we've been working all this time, we really=20
have the software ready," Gates said.
The reason few people outside the computing and=20 communications industries
are aware of a=20 technology that is about to transform=20 everybody's'
lives is that providers are holding=20 fire on. IPTV has the potential to
blow big=20 content suppliers like Sky out of the water. IPTV=20 will also
make the concept of traditional=20 television advertising redundant, as few
viewers=20 will opt to watch ad breaks when they have=20 absolute control
over what they watch.
Internet television is due to make its debut in=20 the US by the middle of
2005 and it will appear=20 in Europe towards the end of the year. US=20
telecoms giant Verizon Communications announced=20 its intention to use
Microsoft's software for its=20 internet television rollout.
Verizon's service will initially comprise an=20 interactive programme guide,
high-definition=20 television, digital video recording and=20
video-on-demand and is due to launch in so far=20 undisclosed markets around
the middle of the=20 year. Microsoft's deal with Verizon follows a=20
contract from US telecoms operator SBC=20 Communications to use Microsoft
software to=20 launch a planned television service and an=20 agreement with
BellSouth to conduct television=20 trials with the software.
Although Microsoft has begun 2005 with a flurry=20 of deals with cable and
telecoms companies in the=20 US, its IPTV technology is about to be adopted
in=20 Europe.
"If we win a substantial number of the cable and=20 telecom deals around the
world, then you could=20 see a pretty good-sized business," Gates
recently=20 predicted. Although Microsoft is rumoured to be=20 advanced in
talks with European telecoms and=20 cable providers, few appear willing to
discuss=20 their plans. The technology has the potential to=20 transform
these companies' roles and few are=20 willing to unveil plans before they
decide how to=20 manage such far-reaching changes.
Sources at UK-based telecoms giant BT, for=20 example, privately admit that
the telecoms=20 operator has plans for IPTV, but the company will=20 not
comment officially. The telecoms operator did=20 lift the veil slightly at
its recent financial=20 results meeting when Ian Livingstone, chief=20
executive of BT Retail, revealed that his own=20 household was being used as
a guinea-pig to trial=20 video-on-demand services prior to a commercial=20
rollout next year. At the same press conference=20 BT also announced that it
is carrying out an=20 automatic upgrade to make its customers'=20 broadband
connections four times faster and that=20 it is also developing a service to
be four times=20 faster again.
The company is committed to a overhaul of its=20 copper network. Called the
21st Century Network,=20 BT estimates it will cost the company GBP10bn=20
(E14.6bn $1.9). This network upgrade is similar=20 to that being undertaken
by Verizon in the US as=20 a preparation for its IPTV rollout, although
BT=20 is keeping its cards close to its chest. But it=20 is difficult to
understand what commercial=20 justification this level of investment could
have=20 without IPTV. BT chief executive Ben Verwaayen=20 has said that the
network will be able to support=20 applications such as video conferencing
and=20 distance learning. But video conferencing has=20 been available for
some time and has not been=20 commercially successful; the strategy for=20
distance learning is still to be developed.
But IPTV would have the potential to justify BT's=20 GBP10bn investment in
21st Century Network.=20 Although video-on-demand does not necessarily=20
equate with full-blown IPTV, it is a signpost on=20 the road and could be
the way in which the new=20 technology is first marketed.
IPTV will be harder to explain to ordinary=20 viewers than video on demand.
Early indications=20 of this trend can be seen from the experience of=20 the
nascent internet television market in Europe.=20 The 2004 launch of services
such as Maligne TV=20 and CanalSat DSL in France, FastWeb in Italy has=20
followed a similar pattern, introducing video on=20 demand before rolling
out a wider range of=20 internet-based services. But companies like=20
Verizon, BT and Fastweb will be taking a step=20 into the unknown as with
any new technology. No=20 one can gauge the public appetite for foreign=20
documentaries or news, classic films or other=20 archived material.
The BMRB calculates that there are 47.1m adults=20 aged over 15 in the UK,
29m of whom are viewers=20 of digital television. There is a large
crossover=20 of people who are also surfing the internet; 50%=20 of British
adults have used the internet in the=20 past month. There are just over 23m
internet=20 users in total and just over 20m home internet=20 users, of whom
11.5m are home broadband users.
But, according to the BMRB, video gaming, for=20 example, may not be the
money-spinner some had=20 hoped. One indication of this is that the=20
proportion of Sky/cable digital television=20 viewers who are playing games
through television=20 has been falling over the past year and stands at=20
only 55%. Only 10% of digital television viewers=20 said that they would pay
to play games through=20 digital television. In its forthcoming report,=20
the BMRB will also reveal that there has been a=20 decrease in the
proportion of Sky/cable digital=20 television viewers who have used e-mail.
More encouraging for IPTV is that the proportion=20 of all digital
television viewers who have=20 interacted with programmes has increased in
the=20 past year from 47% to 54%. This trend is=20 sports-related with the
Olympics, Wimbledon and=20 Euro 2004 attracting most interaction.
But theories that IPTV viewers could be tempted=20 to use IPTV for voting or
competing in=20 competitions may be flawed; 57% of digital=20 television
viewers say they are more likely to=20 use a phone to vote or enter a
competition than=20 the interactive button on the television remote=20
control. This contrasts with a figure of 65% only=20 one year ago.
There is evidence of appetite for video on demand=20 which may be why the
telecoms operators are using=20 it as a way of tempting consumers to use
internet=20 television. According to the BMRB, 7.3m UK=20 consumers, about
16% of the adult population,=20 have paid to watch films on television.
Another=20 4.9m, about 10% of the adult population of the=20 UK, have also
paid to watch sport on television.
But there are likely to be problems ahead for=20 IPTV in supplying video on
demand. Just as the=20 rollout of online music has been dogged by the=20
ability of internet to offer songs free, so the=20 Hollywood studios,
together with other filmmakers=20 and content owners, are wary of a
technology=20 capable of delivering their content free.=20 Hollywood's worst
nightmare is of millions of=20 IPTV users logging on to the movie equivalent
of=20 a file-swapping site such as Kazaa to download=20 films without paying
for them.
While the studios would have the legal power to=20 sue anyone doing this,
piracy on this scale - as=20 the music industry knows to its cost - is hard
to=20 police. The service providers have little vested=20 interest in
safeguarding copyright. Their=20 interest is to ensure that consumers use
their=20 network to access IPTV.
=46or this reason, Gates has been a regular visitor=20 to Hollywood to
reassure film copyright owners=20 that Microsoft's IPTV platform will
dovetail=20 effectively with copyright protection software.
Microsoft argues that the studios' best=20 protection against abuse by IPTV
is a software=20 standard that allows consumers easy access to=20 video
content on the internet.
According to a Microsoft spokesman, it will be=20 possible for content
providers to distribute=20 video through IPTV on a pay-per-view basis
using=20 the company's digital rights software. But the=20 spokesman added
that IPTV will also make it=20 simpler for consumers to record and store
their=20 favourites.
"With an internal or external hard disk,=20 customers can pause, fast
forward and rewind live=20 and recorded content, and since it's IPTV,=20
multiple recordings can be made without the need=20 for tuners so there's no
need for costly hardware=20 upgrades," said the spokesman.
Gates will need all his tactical skills not only=20 to persuade content
owners of the merits of IPTV=20 but also to reconcile the threat it poses
to=20 cable television operators with the opportunity=20 it presents to
telecoms operators like Verizon=20 and BT. This is particularly true in the
US,=20 where cable networks pass roughly 95% of=20 households.
In Europe, the situation is different. Despite=20 the six-to-nine months
lead the US has on Europe=20 in internet television, European telecoms=20
companies and internet service providers are=20 already using digital
subscriber line (DSL)=20 technology.
In France, for example, telecoms operators like=20 Iliad have already
introduced so-called=20 triple-play services which stream voice calls,=20
broadband internet and digital television down=20 existing lines. With
European telecoms giants=20 like France Telecom about to follow and BT=20
waiting in the wings, IPTV could have an easier=20 landing in Europe than in
the US.
=46or Microsoft, the recent deals with telecoms=20 operators represent a
bridgehead into a new mass=20 market, something Gates believes is crucial
to=20 the future of his Seattle-based software giant.=20 Despite its current
financial health, Microsoft=20 is troubled by computer viruses and
software=20 piracy. It is also seeing new and existing=20 customers buying
products based on open-source=20 software such as Linux.
Microsoft has to ride the shift of computing=20 power out of the office or
study and into the=20 rest of the home. Gates's answer is the networked=20
home and central to this vision is the=20 convergence of the internet and
the television.=20 Gates believes that by providing his company's=20
software to IPTV and helping safeguard copyright=20 over the internet,
Microsoft can establish a=20 fresh revenue stream.
He is confident, recently stating that despite=20 the many difficulties,
Microsoft IPTV will be "a=20 very, very good-sized business. And that is=20
reinforcing all the other work we're doing - our=20 media [compression
technology], our=20 digital-rights management. It's a great thing for=20
getting other efforts around the company to=20 critical mass." If IPTV
succeeds, Gates will have=20 remade the world in his image for a second
time.
<< Copyright =A92005 All material is subject to Copyright. >>
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