[opendtv] Re: News: Television industry faces dark times

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 10:46:20 -0400


Television industry faces dark times

Jul 14, 2008 9:11 AM

Lehman Brothers cut the stock ratings of Walt Disney, Time Warner, CBS,
News Corp. and Viacom last week over fear that "structural changes
appear destined to impact the core revenue and profits of the
entertainment business."

[ ... ]

He argued that as consumers shift to new types of media - movie
downloads or TV video recorders that make it possible to skip
commercials - the big entertainment companies will struggle to replace
traditional sources of revenue. 

[ ... ]

The only change I can see from back in the early 1980s is that now it's
the service providers that offer PVRs, whereas back then individuals had
to set up their own VCRs to do time shift recording? I just don't
understand why this would come to a head so suddenly, decades after this
ad skipping (or fast forwarding anyway) became available.

Still, the demand for story-telling won't go away. My bet is that if the
content creators try selling these stories on an individual basis,
episode by episode, they will seriously lose their audience. More or
less like selling books outright only, and eliminating libraries.

I wonder how the Internet distribution of full episodes is doing, with
their minimal ad intrusion. You can't skip or fast forward, but the
networks seem smart enough to have figured out that people won't tune
out for the occasional 30 second ad. Do they get more for those 30
second ads than they do for the ridiculously long ad breaks on normal
distribution media? They should. I'm sure those 30 seconds are far more

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