[opendtv] Re: News: Nielsen Gives Fuzzy Picture of HDTV Penetration

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Mon, 12 Nov 2007 08:24:05 -0500

At 7:56 PM -0500 11/11/07, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
 >> Remember just a couple of years ago, when I said that LCD
 TVs would take over and CRT TVs would drop out? And how
 you insisted that most TVs sold were still CRTs? It's the
 same thing on this subject [HDTV]. Trends, Craig.

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

 NO, I do not remember this.

The wonders of archives. Dial back the clock to July 2004. This was when
most PC monitor sales had already gone to LCD, but not yet TV sets. In
late June, I had posted a story which explained that low-priced LCD TVs
were coming. And that "by 2008, a panel for a 30-inch/32-inch LCD TV
will cost less than half of what it costs today, sliding from $953 to
$430, ..."

To be accurate Bert, you posted a story from EE Times that included the quote above. And yes, it looks like the Display Search prediction is accurate. Note that the numbers in the story apply only to the panel itself, not the cost of the end product.

While there are some Chinese products selling for the price points you suggest, the average price for a name brand 32" LCD panel continues to hover around $1,000. By 2008 I expect that this may come down to $500.

In 2004 I wrote:
 > What this story points out is that there is potential for
 LCD panels to replace CRTs for the smaller displays that are
 found around the typical home. But the cost premium for LCD
 panels is going to be a major issue for years to come.

 Today, Dell offers a 30" HD ready LCD panel for $2,999. A
 comparable CRT display can be found for less than $500. Even
 with a 50% price drop the LCD panel is still going to be
 expensive relative to a CRT.

Two things have happened that have fueled the transition from CRT to LCD panels.

1. Massive investments in LCD production capacity have accelerated the price declines.

2. Consumers are paying significantly more for a new TV than they did for the CRT TVs they are replacing.

You left out an important part of the discussion thread that resulted from your posting the EE Times article:

At 10:55 AM -0400 7/1/04, Craig Birkmaier wrote:
The issue with TVs is simply one of economics. The average price of a
TV is sill well below $500. It will take years for LCD panels to be
price competitive, especially for the smaller screens that will be
found in bedrooms, etc.

The only way this can change is if there is a shift in perception
about the value of a new display. If  new applications emerge that
take advantage of the benefits of LCD displays, the masses might
spend a bit more for a digital media appliance to replace an existing
TV.  This is where "convergence" could have an impact.

The reality is that there HAS been a shift in perception about the value of flat panel displays. They not only make better pictures, they look better when they are turned off. The ability to hang panels on walls and use less bulky furniture is a big plus in the decision to spend in excess of $1000 for a new TV to replace that 27" model that cost @$299. And yes, the availability of HD programming - especially sports- is a factor too. The convergence stuff is just starting to happen with Media PCs, Apple TV et al. And we are starting to see more and more big screen PCs that double as TVs ( e.g. the 24" iMac that sells for $1799.


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