[opendtv] Re: News: DIRECTV Sued Over HDTV Picture Quality
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 25 Sep 2006 10:29:35 -0400
At 6:59 PM -0700 9/24/06, Frank Eory wrote:
I understand Mark's math that says it will take 10+ years to replace
all the analog sets, but I contend that all the analog sets don't
need to be replaced! Consumers won't necessarily run out and buy a
new DTV set to replace every bedroom or kitchen TV set they own, but
that doesn't mean they're going to buy ATSC STBs either. If you are
a real optimist, the TAM for those STBs might be in the 10's of
millions of units. But it might be much much lower than that. The
fact that all new TV sets have (or will by then have) DTT tuners is
a factor. The fact that most consumers will never use those DTT
tuners is an even bigger factor.
-- Frank
Here's another possibility that has not been factored into the
equation. Many of these old NTSC receivers are in bedrooms, dens,
etc., where they are now sharing the space with a computer.
There are two possible scenarios for replacement of these old NTSC sets:
1. Consumers will buy flat screen TVs (typically 25" - 32" LCD
panels) to replace the old TV.
2. Consumers will buy a dual use appliance (TV and Computer) to
replace the old TV and old computer.
If downloading content from the Internet becomes a viable alternative
to cable and DBS, I would expect the second option to be the one that
most consumers will favor.
Maybe it's time for Mark to start tracking the sales of computers
with displays that are 20" or larger...
Note that Apple is now selling iMacs with 17, 20 and 24" displays.
Actually this is a slight misnomer, as the computer and DVD drive are
integrated with the display.
This brings up another interesting point.
What is the relative cost of adding a computer and DVD drive to a
display versus an ATSC/cable ready tuner?
What is the perceived value of that computer to the consumer versus
the TV tuners?
Regards
Craig
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