[opendtv] Re: Networks Threaten To Pull Channels Off The Air If Aereo & Dish Win Lawsuits
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 22 Apr 2013 13:34:53 -0400
On Apr 21, 2013, at 7:25 PM, "Manfredi, Albert E"
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Wow, you're amazingly stubborn, even after articles posted on here have been
> saying that the trend is NOT in this direction. Check out Hulu and Hulu Plus,
> for example. Amazon. What you describe is a holding action by MVPDs, but it's
> not set in concrete for the rest of eternity.
Please pay attention. I never said this was going to last forever. I simply
said that they are pursuing this bundling strategy and it will allow them to
prop up these oligopolies for another decade or two. And please stop trying to
equate delayed access to SOME of the conglom content via the web to an MVPD
subscription…
The old saw: "A day late and a dollar short" applies here. 85% of U.S. homes
are still willing to pay for an MVPD service to get access to content that is
either NEVER available, or available after a delay via the Internet.
YES… this will change someday.
> But that's not my emphasis here. My emphasis is that I'm not about to pay for
> an infrastructure I don't use. Never mind the bundles, which is just another
> aspect of this. And my point is, no one else in his right mind would be
> willing to pay for infrastructure he doesn't use. Oh yeah. Like the younger
> crowd.
While infrastructure is certainly necessary to provide services, the consumer
is mostly oblivious to it; in their minds they are paying for services and
content, not infrastructure.
> I'm not sure just what fraction of video viewing the younger crowd does on
> what device. But handheld toys account for most of it, or so the trade press
> keeps telling us. So it's pretty clear that the TV content owners will need
> to get their signals onto these devices, and it's also clear that these
> devices are not compatible with MVPD distribution media.
You are kidding yourself if you think that anyone spends as much time watching
video on mobile devices as they do on TVs. But they may pay more attention to
what they are watching on a mobile device.
>
> That's why there's a growing number of "cable nevers" among this group.
Goes right along with the high levels of unemployment in this group - not a
great time to be graduating from college. We are paying degreed engineers
$12-13/hr to brew beer...
>
>> Perhaps ISPs could become a customer service tool for the networks,
>> since they already have a direct contractual relationship with you.
>
> Of course. It's what I've been trying to get across. Wired MVPDs and wireless
> ISPs could in principle reinvent themselves that way, but the DBS folk would
> have a tougher go of it.
Not as long as the bundles still exist. DBS is just as effective at delivering
MVPD services as cable and the newer fiber services. By bundling the wireless
component they can even provide broadband - hence my comment about LTE being
faster than my DSL service.
Remember, mobile devices that use wireless broadband can consume your bit
budget very quickly. THat is why I bought an iPad WITHOUT cellular wireless.
This may change as the LTE networks are built out and competition increases,
which is why I suspect that Dish thinks they can leverage the Sprint spectrum.
>
> Now, the question is, because of this "net neutrality" concept, would the
> ISPs have a harder time of it to create their own TV bundles? I don't know
> for sure, but I think they would.
Apples and oranges. Even AT&T and Verizon provide TV bundles via DBS or their
own fiber. These services are separate from broadband. Net neutrality would
only apply if they BLOCK or slow down competing services.
> http://www.wired.com/underwire/2013/03/streaming-video-advertising/
So the Wired story tells us that up to 15% of us now use Internet video
services on a regular basis. I'm one of them…
I am also a MVPD subscriber, which allow me to access protected content on my
mobile devices.
Nobody is saying that TV delivered via the Internet is going anywhere but up.
The most likely reason for the significant increase reported by Wired, however,
has more to do with convenience and the decline (near death) of packaged media
- i.e. DVDs. It is much easier to stream content from Netflix than driving to
Blockbusters (if you can still find one). Red Box seems to be the last store
standing (typically a kiosk outside the local gas station or in a supermarket).
Wired also notes that advertisers are very interested in this "new" audience.
I've been saying this for years. It should be obvious that the ability to
target ads that are "traceable" is of greater value than broadcasting ads
shotgun style.
It is this last factor that may well be the driving force that will FINALLY
bring the con gloms down - or at least kill OTA broadcasting. The MVPDs have
been guard at work on developing the technology for targeting ads - even the
DBS system. The DISH "hopper" STB not only skips broadcast ads, but it can
cache targeted ads for that subscriber.
> http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57573734-93/more-americans-opting-to-cut-cord-on-traditional-tv/
>
The cnet article follows on the same theme, adding that about 5 million people
have become TV nevers (as in no TV - no broadcast, no cable). And they note
that these people now access traditional TV content via the Internet on laptops
and tablets. The article also notes that 5 million people is a drop in the
bucket in a country of 313 million people.
I would add, that the 15% who these articles identify is similar to the number
of people who DO NOT subscribe rot an MVPD service.
One final thought.
I do not disagree with Bert about the trends. I've been writing about these
trends for decades. Without political gerrymandering and government supported
oligopolies, I suggest that most of these trends would ALREADY have become "the
new normal." But the reality is that there are powerful forces at work that
have slowed the pace of change to a crawl…
Regards
Craig
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