[opendtv] Re: Multichannel News: Analyst: In Wireless ‘Clash of the Titans,’ Cable Wins
- From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2018 06:45:49 -0500
On Feb 13, 2018, at 4:20 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
I'm skeptical. Claiming that Verizon is a wireless carrier, when in fact
Verizon is both wireless and cabled, seems a stretch. Any fixed 5G service,
from Verizon or AT&T, or Google Fiber 2.0, does not make them wireless
carriers at all. It's just a small adjustment to the fixed wired service
formula.
But that's an aside, I think. The main point here is, don’t expect a lot of
competition for broadband service in the future. Expect consolidation. Which
I think is credible, much more credible than uninformed banalities about
"enormous" competition right around the corner. Which is why we need net
neutrality guarantees.
WOW. Bert really missed it this time...
But he did manage to turn this into a net neutrality rant.
What did Bert miss?
1. Convergence - today we still think in terms of needing (and paying for) both
fixed broadband and wireless cellular/data subscriptions. These subscriptions
may also include a TV entertainment product. As the article correctly profits,
these products are converging into a single bundle, which will place downward
price pressure on these bundles.
2. Infrastructure interoperability and sharing - Bert’s obsession with
regulated monopolies is misplaced; the deregulated cellular business has moved
to third party management of shared infrastructure and leasing of capacity via
MVNO agreements.
Bert loves to discuss the early history of telephony and the need for
regulation so that competitive systems would interconnect. The result was Title
II and nearly 70 years of heavy handed regulation and monopoly pricing. This
heavy handed approach was attempted with regulated access telco data lines by
competitors, which failed miserably.
After nearly three decades of DEREGULATION of the cellular industry, we have
multiple competitors that share infrastructure and lease access to additional
competitors.
3. Convergence & Interoperability - both the cable industry and telcos have
been deploying millions of WiFi hotspots. There are more than 50 million public
WiFi hotspots globally. 5G standards will allow the seamless interoperability
of WiFi and cellular networks. The large investment in these hotspots by the
cable industry provides an important part of the future wired/wireless
communications infrastructure, not to mention the ability to offload
significant traffic from the cellular networks. The likely outcome will be the
sharing of infrastructure across all carriers - both cable and telco.
Bert points out that the telcos have deployed FTTH systems to compete with
cable. And in fact, where these systems exist we are already seeing bundling
that include both fixed and wireless broadband and TV entertainment. Currently
there is little competition for these bundles, except in markets where Comcast
has MVNO agreement.
As the article points out, soon all of the major cable MSOs will have similar
agreements in place, which will lead to the competition that the article
discusses.
As for Net Neutrality, it is difficult to imagine that ANY company offering
comprehensive communications/TV bundles could survive by blocking or throttling
ANY legal services.
On the other hand, paid prioritization is clearly going to be a feature of
these bundles until the day comes when data caps become meaningless, This could
be the case in the five year period discussed in the article...
Regards
Craig
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