[opendtv] Re: Let the games begin

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Tue, 14 Nov 2006 09:48:46 -0500

At 4:39 PM -0500 11/13/06, Bob Miller wrote:
Forever is a long time. The way we do things in this country the next
correct time to chance modulations and codecs  will be the day that
87% of the public has legacy receivers a percentage of which can
benefit from A-VSB. We have to wait for that moment to screw the most
people the most.

More likely is that most of us will continue to pay little to no
attention to OTA. Everyone will have a receiver in their big DTV sets
and the fact that you can actually possibly receive something with it
will be a trivia question on Jeopardy. One which any one under 30
won't get.

We are NEVER going to see installed percentages above 80% for the ATSC standard. The ONLY way this could happen is if the government FORCED everyone to buy integrated receivers. Today, monitors are selling quite well, and when NTSC goes away there will be even less incentive to include tuners in a display.

But to argue percentages based on the technical underpinnings of the standards completely misses the point. We are dealing with techno-politics and the cozy relationship between the politicians/regulators, and the industries that they regulate. The ONLY reason that the OTA franchise still exists is Retransmission Consent. We are now at the point where more than 85% of U.S. viewers are resigned to the fact that they must pay for advertiser supported TV.

The reason that DTV is working in Europe is that the broadcasters are TRYING to attract an audience to the service, and providing enough programming choice to make the proposition viable. On the other side of the coin/ocean, U.S. broadcasters are trying to eliminate the OTA audience so that they can collect monthly subscriber fees via cable, DBS, or TelcoTV.


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