[opendtv] Re: Lesson of high-def DVD war: It's the ecosystem, stupid

  • From: Tom Barry <trbarry@xxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2008 12:34:44 -0500



Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> What is likely to happen is that both HD disc formats will survive as
> niche products.


I was mildly favoring HD DVD because of possibly more friendly PC Playback, though I don't have a horse in this race. But I do not think HD DVD will survive very long now unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat.

I use the Amazon 'number in the top 1000' sales numbers as a proxy for relative sales on these discs and since the Warner announcement that has been about 3:1 or better in favor of BD. Plus, AACS protected discs are easily and regularly copied now. This makes them more attractive to consumers but less attractive to studios. And for the moment it is still harder to copy BD discs using the BD+ copy protection.

If sales ratios stay at 3:1 or greater and BD+ discs are still mostly uncompromised in a few months there may be many more studio and retailer defections from HD DVD. And they can't handle any more right now.

So I don't know if Blu Ray will be successful but strongly suspect that HD DVD will not be.

- Tom


At 11:20 AM -0500 1/15/08, John Golitsis wrote:

How is Blu-ray the better format, exactly? It has a higher disc capacity, but at the expense of higher replication prices. It's version 2.0 - which should start becoming available in the 2nd half of 2008 - is equivalent to HD DVD 1.0 which began shipping in 2006. It's minimum audio requirement is plain old Dolby Digital, where HD DVD's is DD+. Oh, and keep in mind that 1.0 players aren't upgradable to even 1.1, let alone 2.0 (with the exception of the PS3).

If it weren't for the PS3, Blu-ray would have been absolutely still-born. Look at the attach-rate today...there are about 8 Blu-ray capable players out there for every 1 HD DVD capable player, yet the software sales are 2:1.

The POTENTIAL is clearly on the HD DVD side because if you get more players into homes, you'll sell more discs per player.

The MONEY is clearly on the Blu-ray side however.


And consumers are on neither side. Most are satisfied with red laser DVD, and are more likely to migrate to movie download services from DVD, not to another more expensive disc format.

It is worth noting that Apple did not announce any Blu disc support yesterday. But they did announce that Fox will start releasing standard def DVDs with a bonus. They will contain a second copy of the movie (Fairplay protected) that can be downloaded directly to a computer and then to an iPod or iPhone.

What is likely to happen is that both HD disc formats will survive as niche products.

Regards
Craig



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Tom Barry                  trbarry@xxxxxxxxxxx  



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