[opendtv] Re: Lesson of high-def DVD war: It's the ecosystem, stupid

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2008 09:45:02 -0500

At 11:20 AM -0500 1/15/08, John Golitsis wrote:
How is Blu-ray the better format, exactly? It has a higher disc capacity, but at the expense of higher replication prices. It's version 2.0 - which should start becoming available in the 2nd half of 2008 - is equivalent to HD DVD 1.0 which began shipping in 2006. It's minimum audio requirement is plain old Dolby Digital, where HD DVD's is DD+. Oh, and keep in mind that 1.0 players aren't upgradable to even 1.1, let alone 2.0 (with the exception of the PS3).

If it weren't for the PS3, Blu-ray would have been absolutely still-born. Look at the attach-rate today...there are about 8 Blu-ray capable players out there for every 1 HD DVD capable player, yet the software sales are 2:1.

The POTENTIAL is clearly on the HD DVD side because if you get more players into homes, you'll sell more discs per player.

The MONEY is clearly on the Blu-ray side however.

And consumers are on neither side. Most are satisfied with red laser DVD, and are more likely to migrate to movie download services from DVD, not to another more expensive disc format.

It is worth noting that Apple did not announce any Blu disc support yesterday. But they did announce that Fox will start releasing standard def DVDs with a bonus. They will contain a second copy of the movie (Fairplay protected) that can be downloaded directly to a computer and then to an iPod or iPhone.

What is likely to happen is that both HD disc formats will survive as niche products.


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