[opendtv] Re: Kagan: TV Ad Revs Less In 2013, Than 2006

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2010 20:53:24 -0500

At 12:51 PM -0800 2/9/10, Dale Kelly wrote:
In 2009, SNL Kagan said TV station traditional ad revenues sank 20% to $19 billion 

The 2009 revenue number is relative to what?
It appears that Kagan is looking at total station revenues including traditional advertising, online advertising and retrans consent revenues. But the $19 billion looks like total revenues not traditional ad revenues.
The Television Bureau of Advertising estimates traditional ad revenues for 2009 at $11.76 billion; for 2006 they report $16.17 billion, and for 2007 it peaked at $17.61 billion. These numbers DO NOT include local political advertising. For 2006 local political was $2.1 billion; 2008 was $2 billion; 2009 was $.9 billion.
I can't provide a direct link to these historical numbers because of the way their site is constructed. 

First go here: http://www.tvb.org/nav/build_frameset.aspx

Then follow the drop down menus:

Research Central / Ad Revenue Track / Historical TV Ad Expenditures
Local TV ad revenues are in the third column. Local Political is in the 4th column. 

According to these numbers, Total ad revenues were:

2007 - $18.29 billion

2008 - $16.8 billion

That's a drop of nearly $1.5 billion in an election year.

for 2009 they estimate total ad revenues of $12.66 billion.
As John Shut reminded us recently, 2009 was not an election year. IMO the only accurate way to compare TV revenues is in four year cycles, from one Presidential election to the next , which would average two election years and two non election years.
Not exactly. It is quite revealing to look at the growth of TV political advertising; McCain Feingold - enacted in 2002 - did NOTHING to slow this growth. In fact more money was spent on local political ads in 2006 (non presidential) than 2008. perhaps this may have something to do with the shift of political advertising to cable.
Election years could possibly surpass other years by about 20%. And, now that the Supreme Court has turned the Wolves loose, it could even top that.
Based on the historical data it looks like 10% was more the norm, but the Television Advertising Bureau projections for the next few election cycles show SIGNIFICANT GROWTH for political ads relative to traditional ads.
I guess you could say that this is a perverse form of "government" support for the media - incumbency and special interest money, with a liberal serving of taxpayer dollars via the $3 check box on tax returns to support presidential elections. 

Regards
Craig


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