[opendtv] Re: Kagan: TV Ad Revs Less In 2013, Than 2006

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2010 08:29:43 -0500

At 1:58 PM -0800 2/10/10, Dale Kelly wrote:
For 2006 local political was $2.1 billion; 2008 was $2 billion; 2009 was
$.9 billion.

What happened to the numbers for 2007 political?

I did not include them because it was a non election year. Not sure why I put 2009 in the series...

;-)


I checked the TVB web site as you suggested (very intereting). Non election year political revenue was only about 25 to 30% of the election years revenue. Attempting to establish an over all revenue trend by comparing a non election year with the previous year, is inaccurate. My opinion remains that broadcast advertising trends should be based upon four year election cycles.

I think the original Kagan story was focused primarily on the decline in traditional advertising. The TBA site seems to concur.

I somewhat agree with you about the four year election cycle, however, the reality is that the presidential race is a relatively small addition to the nearly five hundred House/Senate races that occur at two year intervals. I can virtually guarantee that 2010 will set a new record in political advertising; not because of the Supreme Court ruling, but rather because of the high level of political activism that exists today - fund raising levels from the public are setting records.

Also, it is clear that McCain Feingold did noting to slow the growth of political advertising - it merely allowed the creation of new ways to get around spending limits. I doubt there will be a big increase in corporate/union paid ads, because those who wanted to influence elections were unfettered by McCain Feingold. If anything we may see more clearly who is actually sponsoring the ads.

Regards
Craig


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