At 11:53 AM -0500 12/2/04, Manfredi, Albert E wrote: >Even if what you claim above ever comes to pass, you >would still need to show that the direct sales >revenues would be far, far greater than the revenues >after the direct sales period. These are very simply >different business models, which can perfectly well >coexist. No one is forced to watch ads. Just buy the >DVD boxed sets of TV shows, if you prefer. Duh. Have you ever looked at the revenue windows for theatrical releases? In "some" cases the theatrical release window is large; in many cases it is relatively small. What is important here is that it is FIRST, and it garners the highest premium, although the revenues are split between the content and theater owners. In many cases movies are only in the theaters for a week or two - the real economic window for these movies is the next step in the distribution process...packaged media release. It is not uncommon today for a theatrical feature to make MORE money in the packaged media release window than in the theaters. This is true for the blockbusters, and is especially true for the movies that do not stay in theaters for long. It is a fact that Hollywood makes more money on packaged media sales than theater box office receipts. Next on the list is the PAID viewing window. This includes hospitality release (hotels, ships, airlines, etc.), movie package service (HBO, Starz, Showtime, etc), NVOD, and VOD. This is much smaller than the revenues from packaged media sales. Next comes advertiser supported TV release. Except for the blockbusters, this is just end of life pricing, after the real revenues have been collected. Bottom line, it is EASY to demonstrate that direct sales revenues are already far, far greater than the revenues after the direct sales period for theatrical and certain kinds of TV releases (e.g the episodic programs created for paid services like HBO and Showtime. Currently, the first run on the networks is comparable to theatrical release; most of the money is collected AFTER the program goes into syndication. >If someone were out to replace the radio and TV >broadcast industry with a new form of high cost >by-subscription-only news and entertainment service, >then I might buy into the argument that ad zapping >is nothing to worry about. It's patently obvious that >if you take away the revenue source from any given >industry, that industry won't survive. Duh! Hmmmm.... I think this has already happened Bert. There are MANY ways to buy content directly today. 85% of the country pays for a multichannel advertiser supported TV service, and about 30 % pay for premium channels. Virtually ALL of us buy packaged media. Now people are paying about $10/month for satellite radio. The PRIMARY motivation to date has been to avoid ads. Regards Craig ---------------------------------------------------------------------- You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways: - Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org - By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word unsubscribe in the subject line.