[opendtv] Re: IBM out of the PC business
- From: "Tom McMahon" <TLM@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 4 Dec 2004 06:35:26 -0800
Having worked at Microsoft and having spent a lot of time working with a number
of different MS divisions and departments (including
WebTV and MSTV), I can tell you that the company execs generally believe there
are four basic PC/SW consumption domains. The place
you sit/stand and the way you interact and behave in each of these domains is
often fundamentally different, and probably won't
change much over our lifetimes. Some are social (at least optionally so), some
are generally person:person or human:machine only.
1) Communication - Email, IM, etc. Happens anywhere on almost any device type
(Workstations, PDAs, etc.). Person:person and/or
group interaction.
2) Productivity - MS Office-type tools (Word, Excel, etc.). Up-close,
generally structured setting, fancy typewriter. Usually
human:machine experience. Usually happens in a corporate or home office-type
environment (or airplane seat).
3) Education - Purpose built applications, interactive tools, personal
research. Person:person, human:machine and/or group
interaction.
4) Entertainment - While you can do all of the above in this domain too, it
isn't clear outside of a connected group like this how
many typical consumers are really going to want to do so. This domain
traditionally uses purpose-built devices. Bulletproof
reliability. CE environment. Aesthetic design. Heat/noise restrictions.
Typically sit-back experience.
This last domain has always been the hard nut to crack for Microsoft. It could
potentially represent a huge market, but the
requirements are tough. It could be a major pull for MS DRM'd content, MS
compressed content, MS .NET broadband services, MS OS's
set top boxes and CE platforms, the back-end MS SQL servers and MS XML Biz-Biz
apps to run it all, etc. Hence the attraction.
However, I think that you also have to consider that the numbers below can be
deceiving. I experienced first hand the many waves of
product prototyping with focus groups where consumers initially think something
will be cool in the entrance exam (survey), but
their interest level quickly falls of as they revert to their standard
behaviour patterns. I also don't think that the major CE
companies are going to relinquish this turf very easily.
(Having said all that I want to see MS stock go to $100/share again.)
- Tom McMahon
-----Original Message-----
From: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
Behalf Of Craig Birkmaier
Sent: Saturday, December 04, 2004 6:10 AM
To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [opendtv] Re: IBM out of the PC business
At 5:32 PM -0500 12/3/04, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
>I thought that this had essentially already happened, but it's still an
>intriguing demonstration of how innovative products become commodity
>items. Part of the off-shoring thread.
Clearly - and thankfully - the "classic" PC has become a legacy product. The
market is evolving in many directions. The notion that
the PC in the office and information appliances in the home will evolve down
the same path is absurd. I just saw a stat in a NYTimes
story about the proposed IBM sale that was quite interesting.
"We've been in the post-PC era for four years now," Mr. Schwartz said, noting
that last year a billion wireless handsets were sold
compared with 100 million personal computers.
Regards
Craig
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