[opendtv] Re: Hypothesis-testing
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 8 Jan 2007 09:25:22 -0500
At 8:57 AM -0800 1/6/07, John Willkie wrote:
Gee, and somehow a 2 million drop that you concede in a 16 million universe
isn't underperforming. Me, I'd call that a 12 percent drop, where NBC's
gain was about 50%. Definitely asymmetrical.
NBC only saw a 50% gain for the games they were able to choose at the
end of the season. Their average audience during the season was
around 9 million, hardly a 50% increase.
Either you are so biased as to not concede something evident to one and all,
or you are math-impaired, or, Maybe you just don't understand the terms
"under-performing" and "over-performing" as used in TV/Cable advertising?
No, I just don't agree with your math.
Here's the simple metric. If you have 50% of the audience, but you get 55%
of the revenue in a market, you overperform by 10%. In this case, the other
station would have 50% of the audience yet 45% of the revenue, so they
underperform by 10%.
An interesting analysis. There is no question that the broadcast nets
have been over-performing for nearly a decade as they have pushed up
rate to compensate for the loss of audience. But those days are over.
The pressure is now on the negotiate ad rates during the year, rather
than paying a premium during the up front season. And ad rates for
the broadcast nets are now falling.
Regards
Craig
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