[opendtv] Re: Huh?
- From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 13:16:53 -0500
Well first off if you are not the pilot it is possible to watch TV while
flying. Thousands are doing it right now. And we will watch DTV in the
subway. Watching big screen TV monitors seems to be all the rage in
church these days. I could go on.
But the central theme here is what percentage of TV watching will be
done in the living room and what percentage will be done in other areas
including mobile. I think this other should include mobile and portable
but am willing to consider both separately. The surveys John mentions
were I believe done with subjects that had no experience with mobile DTV
on a cell phone or otherwise. People that have been surveyed who have
had experience with a mobile cell phone service have a much different
response according to reports from test done in other countries. In fact
a much more favorable response than I expected. And they were responding
to what I believe will be the dominate model for cell phone DTV delivery
which will be a separate broadcast service not carried on the cell
network and not charged by the minute as John suggest but by the month.
These respondents suggest that $15 a month would be OK. The Sirius and
XMRadio success suggest that adding video to the mobile mix will be at
least as successful. I expect it will be far more successful. And the
mobile cell phone DTV broadcast will include radio also. Possibly at a
higher bit rate than the satellite ventures.
Based on these surveys of those who have actually experience a cell
phone DTV broadcast and what I believe is an even bigger market for
larger format mobile/portable DTV such as the 7 and 8" mobile TVs Mark
mentions in Germany that will allow reception of regular DVB-T, I
predict that more TV will be watched on such mobile/portable devices,
including all such devices, cell phones, mobile computers, mobile DTV
sets, game machines, PDAs, portable DVD players etc. than will be
watched in the living room. And this will happen withing the next eight
years. It will be led by cell phones but that will quickly be superseded
by other devices or devices with larger screens that include cell phones
or cell phones that allow viewing on larger screens such as projectors
or glasses.
The living room will become the theater but most TV watching will be
done on smaller devices. Trying to keep OTA broadcasting going in the US
with 8-VSB with delivery only to the living room and HD in competition
with cable, satellite, broadband and FIOS is doomed.
That is probably why no one is paying any attention to it.
John is right that "mobile TV will increase "people using television" by
no more than 2%" since at least 96% of people now use television. In
fact I doubt if it will increase by that much. But mobile and portable
DTV will increase the amount of time that people watch TV and will
increase the places and vehicles that they watch TV in and to a great
extent it will replace radio as that background pacifier. People will
just have TV on even if they are not actively watching it even more than
they are now doing so just because they can. And more TV programming
will be more like radio programming because of this. More music video stuff.
TV viewing goes up, TV is everywhere and the living room represents less
than 30% of TV viewing in ten years IMO.
The Telcos get burned big time on their FIOS investment also
Bob Miller
John Willkie wrote:
>Mark Shubin reported:
>
>"Most media outlets report the results of a survey showing at 3/4 of
>respondents aren't interested in watching TV programs or movies on their
>mobile phones as indicating there's no business there. If the surveys are
>true, the other quarter could represent a higher number of viewers than almost
>any movie or TV show:
><http://broadcastengineering.com/newsletters/news_tech/20060315/#>"
>
>
>Somehow, that doesn't pass the smell test. Sure, the number could represent
>higher numbers of viewers than almost any movie or tv show. Similar studies
>"predicted" the success of the Edsel, CBS's EVR and the election of John Kerry
>in 2004. Basically, people were either saying that other people would like
>the item, or weren't considering the alternatives.
>
>So, discount that number by at least 50%, but I'd go at least 80%. So, maybe
>the real number is about 5% say they're interested in mobile TV. Before they
>consider the per-minute cost.
>
>Then, consider the content alternatives. What content is available or will be
>available and how long will the content run for? Having a three minute show
>compete with a 30 minute one is a laugh.
>
>Then, there are alternative uses of time. Last time I checked, it wasn't
>possible to watch TV while driving a car, sleeping, riding a bicycle, going to
>church, riding the subway, flying in a plane or many other activities. While
>it is possible to watch a mini tv while watching a home TV, I suspect that few
>people able to watch both at the same time will ever want to do so. ("March
>Madness" might be an exception, but hoops isn't my thing, and idea of watchi
>two college hoops matches at the same time would overtax my multitasking
>"skills.")
>
>I predict (again) that mobile TV will increase "people using television" by no
>more than 2%, and even that will only happen at times of high demand, like if
>the Superbowl were so available. Weekly cume will be perhaps as high as 3% of
>the marketplace.
>
>That just begs the next question, when TV ratings are based on PUT and not the
>demographics of Homes using television.
>
>I will concede that mobile TV will be able to send blip-verts and three minute
>mobi-soaps to trendy youngsters driving around on their mopeds and Hondas, and
>that these folks are otherwise difficult to reach. However, that isn't
>exactly the market that existing advertisers want to reach.
>
>A better bet would be zoned/targeted advertising or something closer to the
>google advertising model.
>
>John Willkie
>
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