[opendtv] Re: Huh?

  • From: "Allen Le Roy Limberg" <allimberg@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 07:09:13 -0500

When you quiz people as to whether they would be interested in purchasing in
some new advance, there is a tendency for them to say "sure".  Very few
people like to present themselves as not being progressive.  So a
businessman has to be very careful about launching products based on
favorable opinion surveys.  The opinion expressed in this survey strikes me
as being unfavorable.

Al Limberg

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "John Willkie" <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, March 21, 2006 12:28 AM
Subject: [opendtv] Huh?


> Mark Shubin reported:
>
> "Most media outlets report the results of a survey showing at 3/4 of
respondents aren't interested in watching TV programs or movies on their
mobile phones as indicating there's no business there.  If the surveys are
true, the other quarter could represent a higher number of viewers than
almost any movie or TV show:
> <http://broadcastengineering.com/newsletters/news_tech/20060315/#>"
>
>
> Somehow, that doesn't pass the smell test.  Sure, the number could
represent higher numbers of viewers than almost any movie or tv show.
Similar studies "predicted" the success of the Edsel, CBS's EVR and the
election of John Kerry in 2004.   Basically, people were either saying that
other people would like the item, or weren't considering the alternatives.
>
> So, discount that number by at least 50%, but I'd go at least 80%.  So,
maybe the real number is about 5% say they're interested in mobile TV.
Before they consider the per-minute cost.
>
> Then, consider the content alternatives.  What content is available or
will be available and how long will the content run for?  Having a three
minute show compete with a 30 minute one is a laugh.
>
> Then, there are alternative uses of time.  Last time I checked, it wasn't
possible to watch TV while driving a car, sleeping, riding a bicycle, going
to church, riding the subway, flying in a plane or many other activities.
While it is possible to watch a mini tv while watching a home TV, I suspect
that few people able to watch both at the same time will ever want to do so.
("March Madness" might be an exception, but hoops isn't my thing, and idea
of watchi two college hoops matches at the same time would overtax my
multitasking "skills.")
>
> I predict (again) that mobile TV will increase "people using television"
by no more than 2%, and even that will only happen at times of high demand,
like if the Superbowl were so available.  Weekly cume will be perhaps as
high as 3% of the marketplace.
>
> That just begs the next question, when TV ratings are based on PUT and not
the demographics of Homes using television.
>
> I will concede that mobile TV will be able to send blip-verts and three
minute mobi-soaps to trendy youngsters driving around on their mopeds and
Hondas, and that these folks are otherwise difficult to reach.  However,
that isn't exactly the market that existing advertisers want to reach.
>
> A better bet would be zoned/targeted advertising or something closer to
the google advertising model.
>
> John Willkie
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