[opendtv] Re: Hello post-PC world: iOS devices sales now match those of Windows computers | ZDNet
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 28 Jul 2015 08:52:17 -0400
Regards
Craig
On Jul 27, 2015, at 10:03 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Craig, numbers seem to confuse you. The drop in sales of iPads and Samsung
tablets are respectively 23% and 30% this past year. The drop in PC sales was
on the order of 5%. Which rate of decline is bigger? This is from May 2015:
That's obvious.
Now ask the more important question:
Which is a bigger loss in sale volumes and revenues:
5% of a very large number:
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., January 12, 2015 – Worldwide PC shipments totaled 80.8
million units in the fourth quarter of 2014 (4Q14), a year-on-year decline of
-2.4%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide
Quarterly PC Tracker. Total shipments were slightly above expectations of
-4.8% growth, but the market still contracted both year on year and in
comparison to the third quarter. Although the holiday quarter saw shipment
volume inch above 80 million for the first time in 2014, the final quarter
nonetheless marked the end of yet another difficult year – the third
consecutive year with overall volumes declining. On an annual basis, 2014
shipments totaled 308.6 million units, down -2.1% from the prior year.
So let's say 5% of 300 million = 15 million unit decline
The article tells us Apple saw a YOY decline of 23% in the first quarter of
2015 - they sold 12.62 million units so that is a decline of 3.57 units. The
article does not say how many units Samsung shipped, only the percentage
decline. But another source tells us they shipped 9 million tablets, so that
means the decline was about 2.7 million units.
Now which numbers are bigger?
Then consider that the tablet market is transitioning from rapid growth to the
refresh/replacement cycle PCs have been in for several decades. From the
article you linked to:
"There is no denying the market is losing its momentum," Stephanie Van
Vactor, a mobile devices analyst with ABI, said in a statement. "The market
is in the process of going through a transition as developed markets shift to
a refresh / replacement cycle.
And
A major reason for the lower sales figures is that once consumers have
tablets, they find little need to upgrade or replace them if they are still
operating, she said. "They last a long time and there's no incentive really
for people to have to refresh them. If their tablet is working perfectly they
don't get any carrier perks to refresh it."
The same can be said about PCs, which now have a refresh cycle of about five
years.
Apple made that up with its iPhone 6, not with iPads.
Correct. As expected the iPhone 6 plus has taken a bite out of the iPAD market.
Better to give consumers the option than to make them go to Samsung to buy a
phablets.
If you want to see a real market shift, look at how much market share Apple has
taken from Samsung since the introduction of the iPhone 6.
No you didn't, Craig. You missed the important numbers completely. It doesn't
even matter the absolute number of units sold, when you're talking about a
declining market.
But the market is not declining Bert. It is just growing at a significantly
slower rate than it was when everyone was buying their first tablet(s).
Meanwhile the PC market is shrinking.
This is what the e-week article says:
"The market is in the process of going through a transition as developed
markets shift to a refresh / replacement cycle. In addition, vendors are
feeling the squeeze due to new devices gaining traction in the market that
are in direct competition with tablets, for example, 2-in-1s, phablets, and
Chromebooks."
Exactly. So now add up all of the mobile devices that people can choose and
compare that number to the number of PCs sold.
They also claim that there's no reason to refresh tablets, which is exactly
what I said. It's more important to buy that iPhone 6, because that makes a
fashion statement. The new iPad does not.
They did not say there is no reason to refresh tablets Bert. They said that the
refresh cycle is starting to look more like PCs, because they do what the
consumer wants.
There is a growing reality in the markets for both PCs and mobile devices. The
hardware is more than adequate for most tasks. Most of the innovation is coming
via software upgrades not hardware upgrades.
I have always enjoyed the fact that when I buy a device from Apple I can expect
it to offer improved functionality over the life of the hardware. This has been
true for desktops, laptops and mobile devices, for which FREE software upgrades
continue at least five years.
Microsoft is doing exactly the same thing. Windows 8 was a huge change of
direction, and the public largely rejected it. Windows 9 made some
improvements, but still sold poorly. So now with Windows 10, they are providing
the upgrade free for those who bought 8 or 9.
The iPad was introduced in April of 2010. So we are just getting to the point
where we should see people upgrading. It is NOT coincidental that iOS 9
introduces new capabilities that require a faster processor and more memory.
Only the currently shipping tablets will be able to take full advantage of the
new multitasking features.
So come back next year and let's see what is happening with the tablet and PC
markets.
Regards
Craig
Bert
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