[opendtv] Re: Hello post-PC world: iOS devices sales now match those of Windows computers | ZDNet
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 26 Jul 2015 10:43:17 -0400
Regards
Craig
On Jul 25, 2015, at 7:35 PM, Albert Manfredi <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Another post-PC rubbish article.
Hardly.
Guess you failed to notice the opening sentence stating the Android tablets
surpassed PC volumes in 2012. So now windows is in third place behind Android
and iOS, as PC sales continue to decline sequentially.
PC Market Continues to Decline Ahead of Windows 10 Release, According to IDC
FRAMINGHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Worldwide PC shipments totaled 66.1
million units in the second quarter of 2015 (2Q15), according to the
International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. This
represented a year-on-year decline of -11.8%, about one percent below
projections for the quarter.
Just to make sure you understand percentages Bert, this is 17.4 times greater
than the 0.5% decline in U.S. MVPD subscribers recorded in the first quarter of
this year.
Instead of this incessant giddy-gushing about iToys replacing PCs, which is
ultimately ridiculous, the trade scribes might want to equate the flatness of
PC *sales* with the similar flatness of *sales* of the limited-use tablets,
including iPads. Although I would give PCs a bigger break than these
limited-use tablets.
The only fact that one can conclude from this data is that PC sale are
declining faster than tablet sales at the moment. There is no indication that
PC sales will rebound - other than Macs that continue to increase in both total
sales volume and market share. On the other hand, if tablet replacement
intervals are five years or more, we should just be entering the first wave of
tablet replacements. Our family just replaced two.
I expect that most people are very much still using their PCs, even if they
are taking a breather from the replacement cycle of years past.
Obviously people still use PCs and Macs Bert. This is not likely to change
dramatically moving forward as there will always be a need for devices used to
run professional and business productivity applications. But the size of the
market for PCs will be significantly smaller than the market for tablets and
smartphones.
Just look at what Microsoft is trying to do, albeit a bit late. They are trying
to migrate Windows (10) to mobile devices like Surface tablets and Windows
Phone.
And yes, the replacement treadmill is slowing down now that processors, memory
and storage are more than adequate, and most of the marginal improvements for
ALL devices are coming from OS upgrades and apps.
There was a time when consumers in the U.S. replaced their cars every 2-3
years. The average age of cars in the U.S. Is now more than 11 years.
On the other hand, I wouldn't be too surprised if tablet use is declining,
after the initial giddiness wore off.
You would be dead wrong.
Here are a few links you might want to look at. The only measurable decline for
tablets is due to larger smartphones, aka phablets. But overall, usage of
mobile devices continues to grow as usage of PCs declines.
This analysis tells us that U.S. Consumers spend 51% of their digital media
time on mobile devices, 40% on PCs. There is also a chart that compares Mobile,
PCs, other devices and TV viewing time.
http://www.smartinsights.com/mobile-marketing/mobile-marketing-analytics/mobile-marketing-statistics/
This link helps to explain why tablet sales are declining. The main takeaway is
as I described above- longer replacement cycles and small incremental
improvements.
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/feb/03/why-are-people-buying-fewer-tablets
And this report offers highly detailed statistics about mobile device usage.
One interesting stat: 65% of U.S. tablet users report using their tablet while
watching TV at least once a day.
http://www.exacttarget.com/sites/exacttarget/files/deliverables/etmc-2014mobilebehaviorreport.pdf
And somewhere I saw a stat that mobile devices are replacing TVs for watching
video in many areas of Asia.
Regards
Craig
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