[opendtv] Re: Hearings :Cost of Converter Boxes
- From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 02:40:29 -0500
Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
>>Better to be amazed when they go on sale. Remember
>>those amazing chips from ATI and Motorola that
>>solved multipath years ago?
>>
>>
>
>Yes indeed. Remember those claims that the indoor
>reception problem could be solved? It happened.
>
>
It is better, it is usable but I would not say solved.
>
>
>>Remember the LG 5th-generation that was already
>>scheduled to be sold?
>>
>>
>
>Granted. A "business decision," though. The chips
>*are* being sold, in fact, just not in stand-alone
>STBs.
>
>Remember those claims that the royalties alone cost
>[insert any number of figures bandied about, including
>as high as $40]. It didn't happen. These vendors
>could not quote such low estimates if the royalties
>were higher than the estimate.
>
>
>
>>Delivery? Oh, that's something different.
>>
>>
>
>Just peeling away at the onion of skepticism and
>pessimism, one layer at a time.
>
>Bert
>
You can never peel away the last 5 years. They are history. As I
remember it way back then people were saying that it would take as long
as FIVE years to get a decent 8-VSB receiver. That was the SUPER
pessimism that was prevalent and it turned out to be true. That is
history and you can't peel it away.
If we had known then what we know now should we have "stayed the
course"? I don't think so. The one silver lining is that like Germany
and Japan after WWII, they were so destroyed that they had an advantage
over the victors, they had to rebuild from scratch which turned out to
be to their advantage. They had all the latest state of the art equipped
industry.
We in the US have a chance to switch to MPEG4 and a more advanced
modulation now since 8-VSB has destroyed, laid waste, to any semblance
of a transition for the last five years. We have little installed base,
it would still be possible. We have gone virtually nowhere since 2000.
If the digital broadcast spectrum is worth the billions often quoted
then it would seem that increasing its capacity from 2 to 3 times what
MPEG2 is capable of would make any other cost of switching now
insignificant. I can see few arguments for not switching to MPEG4.
In doing so we would render all current receivers obsolete which would
offer the possibility of revisiting the modulation. We could look at all
the possibilities calmly, ISDB-T, DMB-T and DVB-T.
After hearing Mr. Kim talk of how we could get a good price of $100 if
we bought millions of receivers in bulk (no sales or distribution cost
and I guess they would forgo paying themselves a royalty) by the end of
2006 or $50 to $70 if we bought 10's of millions by 2008 I think we
should slow down, take another look and switch.
In the UK you can buy a receiver in a convenience store, ONE OFF, for
$50 (before Christmas for $35 on sale) and that includes sales and
distribution and that is NOW not in 2008.
After seven years we had a hearing ONE manufacturer, LG, and a
broadcaster with three stations, Mr. Wilner for the cable industry and a
guy form GAO. How can we take this Congress seriously. What a pitiful
performance.
Bob Miller
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