[opendtv] Re: Google Fiber and Verizon FiOS
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2016 03:27:29 +0000
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
Sorry, but we're not there yet.
The need for legacy cable broadcast delivery has been eliminated. That some
shows might still use that legacy technology does not mean they need to. And,
it appears that people are quite readily giving up that legacy protocol, along
with the content that may still be exclusively sent on it.
Think families with kids.
Kids watch cartoons on Netflix and Amazon, Craig. Or play games on smartphones
and tablets. In fact, they do the two activities simultaneously. The idea that
when Millennials have kids, they will backtrack to legacy technologies, was
just a flight of fancy of one of the pundits. If anything, the exodus would be
a lot faster *if* the MVPDs didn't go to desperate measured when people call to
stop service. But that can't last forever, right?
All irrelevant to my comment. The point is that many people still
have land lines,
Which most of these need for broadband, via DSL. You don't read very carefully,
do you Craig? I said, most likely the majority of people who use twisted pair
wires (to a telco CO), these days, do so for broadband, not just for POTS. Some
people also need those twisted pair for their home alarms systems. So, the
analogy your were trying to make is not very valid. The twisted pair medium is
still being used, repurposed to **new functions**. Whereas your old cable
broadcast spectrum is just riding into the sunset, and could be dropped
tomorrow (or the next day).
25/3 is the FCC definition.
Which you don't need for streaming. So, if you factor in homes with less than
that, the percentage of covered households would improve. And no, Craig, even
families don't need 25 Mb/s necessarily. We can actually squeak by with 1.5 to
1.8 Mb/s, even if my wife is streaming something separate to her Roku box.
Interestingly enough, streaming to the Samsung smartphone is more inefficient,
because when she does that, things go to pot when two are streaming
simultaneously.
Remember that these streaming protocols adjust, and remember that stat mux
actually works. If we can squeak by with a mere 1.5 Mb/s, surely a family of 3
or 4 can get by with less than 25 Mb/s.
No REAL demand. What has declined significantly is viewing
library content filled with commercials.
ROTFL. What's "real demand" Craig? About 1 1/2 years ago, the majority of TV
was already then being watched time shifted, not linear. Sounds pretty REAL to
me.
If the government lets the congloms get away with it, it is
more likely that the congloms will operate the OTT sites, as they
are doing now with Hulu,
You're getting warmer, although you seem to think that the congloms would not
also go it alone. Don't forget, Hulu has already split up into Hulu and Yahoo
View. And each of the congloms continues to have their own .com site to boot.
And Sling TV exists. These congloms don't need to collude, so they don't.
The only logical place to co-locate edge servers is at the local hubs
of the major broadband services. And logic dictates this will be the
wired cable and FTTH services, now entrenched by Title II regulation.
Okay as far as that goes, except you are assuming that the MVPDs would be
satisfied with just providing the CDN functions within their own
infrastructure. Why stop there? I already explained that they can do more than
that, or less than that, as they see fit. The legacy MVPD can also become a
real, nationwide OTT site. But sure, if they want, they can become their own
CDN, within their own infrastructure.
I guess you are saying that the local broadcast portion of these
wired systems will be recovered for broadband.
Yes, we went through those numbers in full detail already.
but neutrality has nothing to do with it.
It has to do with it that previously non-neutral, walled-garden,
local-monopoly-service capacity, which could exploit the economics of
monopolies, will instead now go to neutral, non-monopolistic, fully
service-competitive capacity. That's a huge change. I'm not sure how long you
will keep repeating that it's merely "a change to IP," before getting that it
goes way further than just that. It's a change in business model. It removes
previous limitations, cause by a more primitive technology.
Neutrality has nothing to do with it. These systems will still be
delivering content bundles (services) from Hulu, Netflix, et al.
Which they would not be doing, without a neutrality mandate. Not for long,
anyway. And now, they will have that much more capacity, to offer that many
more competitive services, where before you only got one content store.
Bert
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