[opendtv] Re: Frames Per Second of 720P

  • From: "John Willkie" <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2008 22:02:03 -0700

I've had a chance to read the entire report.  The 'take away' from Bert's
non-analysis is that the report denigrated laptops (he didn't mention the
paltry results in Korea, where laptops are laggards), that Ford has an
interest in Sirrius, and that the report supports FOTA broadcasting.  

I only found the second assertion to be correct.  Is it an oversight, or did
he not want to highlight things that don't support his 'positons'?  I'd
offer that he only reads or cites documents to the extent that they support
his 'positions.'  This is nothing new, but it seems to be particular to
Bert, at least as pertains to this list.

Here are the gems that I found that support conclusions contrary to his, on
this topic and others.  I didn't start out with this intent, but these
things just jumped up starting in the first few pages.

I'll leave for list members whether this is a fair rhetorical technique,
which I call "court-holding."

"According to our interviews, it may be difficult to integrate
OFDM and ATSC on the same chip set. Multistandard chip sets add to the cost
and complexity of the business and technology. Intellectual property rights
have to be negotiated and technology of power requirements all addressed."

" Experience shows that to win a standards war, seven key assets are often
determinative:56
1. Intellectual property rights.
2. Control over an installed base of users.
3. Ability to innovate
4. First mover advantages
5. Manufacturing abilities
6. Strength in complements
7. Brand name and reputation"


" Ultimately, the auto industry appeared to be the
most committed to AM stereo by installing receivers in several lines of
cars. But consumers and broadcasters never followed in sufficient numbers to
make this an interesting market"

(must have been the greed of the auto manufacturers.)

" 3. If consumers are not impressed, a market will not emerge, and

4. In a format war, multisystem receivers may solve a technical issue but
cannot change the unfavorable economics."

" other than an important enabling decision in 1984 by the U.S. Supreme
Court to allow "fair use" applications of home video recording"

" This led to a consumer tipping point because of the implied credibility,
brand equity and easier access to a variety of choices for VHS. In contract,
even by 1984 Sony had only five companies utilizing its intellectual
property. This led Morita to conclude of his company's failure in this
product category, "We didn't put enough effort into making a family . . .
the other side, coming later, made a family.""

" 1. Even with a technological advantage (picture quality), other attributes
(longer recording ability for movie length programming) can tip the
market and undo the first mover's advantage.

2. A follower strategy can take advantage of more recent technology and
efficiencies, even those made possible by the leader."

" A key to the DVD success story is that DVDs use ISO standard MPEG-2 video
compression and digital audio. This platform of standard, interoperable
formats based on patent pools from market leaders offering reasonable and
nondiscriminatory licensing helped the new single DVD format rapidly gain
adoption."

" Alignment of content owners with the HD player platforms can be critical
in determining the outcome."

" One of our interviewees from a consumer electronics firm estimated
that without the format war, five times as many players and twice as many
titles would be on the market by now."

" The Advanced Television Systems Committee (ATSC)87 is a member-based
non-profit organization devoted to developing industry standards" (not an
organization removed from membership that can impose it's will on members)

Did anyone else notice the part that says that M/H uses 8-VSB modulation?

" The intent of the M/H standard is to "support a variety of services
including free (advertiser supported) television and interactive services
delivered in real-time, subscription-based TV and non real-time content for
storage and playback at a later time. It may also be used for new data
broadcasting services such as realtime navigation data for in-vehicle use."

Notice that part about including free (advertiser supported) television.
Not limited to FOTA, but including it.

" 1. ATSC-M/H services shall be carried in DTV broadcast channels. The
presence of these services shall not preclude or prevent operation of
current ATSC services in the same RF channel or have any adverse impact on
legacy receiving equipment.

2. Current ATSC receivers are not expected to be able to decode or
display ATSC-M/H services.

3. Any M/H solution should have sufficient flexibility to offer a
viable service with bitrates that do not devalue existing DTV
services, inclusive of HDTV. No specific bit-rate allocation
restriction exists except that U.S. broadcasters are to provide a
service that continues to conform to FCC requirements."

" 5. Reliability of service for devices operating within the ATSC-M/H
service area should be comparable to or exceed that of cell phone
and other handheld devices enabling similar services."

" 6. Service area, reliability of service, and other technical
considerations shall take account of practical antennas for mobile
and handheld devices, which differ significantly from traditional
30-foot antenna assumptions."

" Finally, and most importantly, M/H digital television (DTV) is a logical
extension of the in-process digitally-driven development of television from
passive entertainment to an interactive, high value, versatile medium (often
referred to as "personal TV")"

"The party proposing the integration of a new product into a manufacturer's
vehicles must know the precise market for the product which translates into
the exact set of cars and/or trucks for which the product would be
considered (e.g., if the buyers are expected to be middle class women with
children then the relevant vehicle set would be vans and certain SUVs).

This is very important because the ultimate decision is based on financial
criteria that relate to the economics of each vehicle segment."

"There is resistance to incorporating new products into current vehicle
lines. This is because the manufacturing process is very complex. For
example, the Ford |Focus has 34,000 "build combinations" that reflect the
different vehicles that could be produced given the range of options,
colors, and extras available as factory installs. Using the Focus as an
example, if installing a television with OTA capability became an option,
then the number of build combinations would increase to 68,000 (i.e., the
previously cited 34,000 each now with and without the TV option)."

"During an interview for this report, a GM representative discussed a
specific datacasting venture that has been undergoing refinement and testing
for two years. Since 2005, GM has been developing a business case for a
datacasting service to GM vehicles. In order to execute the business plan,
GM needs a business partner that has the capability to broadcast local
content (e.g., weather, traffic, gas prices by location) to on-the-road
vehicles with relatively robust reception and ubiquitous in-market
coverage."

"In general, the forecasts for mobile television have certain elements in
common, such as a revenue ramp up that accelerates from a 2009-2010 base and
an expectation that content will drive consumer demand which, in turn, will
determine how fast the M/H business will develop and how large it will
become."

"The situation may change if XM Satellite Radio and Sirius Satellite Radio
merge successfully. In combination, the two had approximately 14 million
subscribers as of year-end 2006.218 If merged, the two would most likely
eliminate redundant audio channels, thereby freeing up bandwidth that could
be used to transmit video to M/H devices"

"However, it is very important to note that the full capital cost advantage
of broadcasters only exists so long as the competitor has not yet built out
its network. Once a competitor builds out its network, then the capital
spend of the competitor becomes a sunk cost, and the competitive advantage
of broadcasters is reduced significantly. However, even after the build out,
the advantage is not eliminated since the competitor has a much larger
investment upon which a satisfactory return must be returned (i.e.,
broadcasters could price below the competition and still earn their required
return on a much smaller capital investment)."

"In addition to the overall programming cost advantage, broadcasters create
and own local content (e.g., news) that, as shown by the ratings, is often
extremely popular from early morning to late evening all days of the week.
The nonbroadcaster mobile television services tend to be national services
without local content (e.g., MediaFLO). Once again, the advantage is with
broadcasters."

"Revenue/business opportunities for M/H DTV can be divided into two
categories:

1. Opportunities that relate to the traditional role of broadcasters
delivering a mass market to advertisers (usually involves no charge to
the consumer, but is distributed on a free-to-air basis); and/or

2. Opportunities that diversify the traditional broadcaster revenue base
to include subscriptions, transactions, and paid carriage for third
parties over the broadcaster's high-speed digital infrastructure."

"At launch, the primary content to be provided over M/H DTV
transmissions will be essentially identical to the programming offered
on the main DTV signal (e.g., primarily network and syndicated
programming with local news, weather, and traffic). There may be some
time shifting and/or additional local content (e.g., tailored news) added
especially in later years. However, the launch of an M/H DTV service by
broadcasters does not require programming an entirely different channel."

"Laptops are ideal receivers for digital television broadcasts -- relatively
large screens, high resolution capability, significant power sources, and a
potential return channel via Ethernet, Wi-Fi or cellular modem connection.
While laptops are portable, the usual in-use situation is at rest (e.g.,
table top).

Our understanding is that: (a) the laptop platform is an excellent candidate
to be equipped with a digital tuner to receive the main OTA DTV broadcast
signal; and that (b) there is no provision in the proposed ATSC standard for
auto-selection logic to have the DTV tuner default to the M/H DTV signal
only when the main DTV signal is not available.236 Therefore, at least for
the period of consideration used in this report (2008-2012), laptops are not
considered a M/H DTV business opportunity for broadcasters (but do
constitute an audience-expanding opportunity for the main DTV signal
which, in turn, could augment broadcaster advertising revenues)."

"Bandwidth Budget: Digital television broadcasters have a finite bandwidth
resource which is their 19.4 Mbps fixed rate data stream269. To offer
broadcast services, broadcasters must trade-off their "bandwidth budget"
in a zero sum game270 to address four goals each of which supports
different business models and paths to revenues. These zero sum goals
involve using their bandwidth budget to maximize (1) Quality (e.g.,
HDTV programs); (2) Quantity (e.g., SDTV multicast channels), (3)
Robustness (e.g., mobile/handheld services) and (4) Variety (e.g., different
services such as datacasting services for public alerting, program guide
information). In making their bandwidth budget or allocation decisions,
broadcasters must determine how they can select business models that best
monetize their bit streams. It is not possible to simultaneously maximize
across Quality, Quantity, Robustness and Variety, so broadcasters must
pick and choose to make relative decisions."


----

Must have just been a "minor oversight" he didn't mention these ...

John Willkie

-----Mensaje original-----
De: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] En
nombre de Manfredi, Albert E
Enviado el: Monday, July 28, 2008 2:43 PM
Para: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Asunto: [opendtv] Re: Frames Per Second of 720P

Mark Aitken wrote:

> So what if there were money to be made EXCLUDING new business?
> (not my words)
>
> http://www.nabfastroad.org/jan14rptfinaldouble.pdf
>
> $2.0B annual total ($1.1 annual local market station take) based
> just on additional ad revenues. (not my numbers)

Always made sense to me. Note that at $20 per month subscription fee, it
looks like TV on cell networks appears not to be self-sustaining. They
say if price goes down to $5 to $10, they may achieve 20 percent
penetration.

I had to chuckle about the vehicular business model. "What's in it for
us?" is what the auto manufacturers want to know. If there's a
subscription fee involved, they expect a kickback, and likelihood of
adoption would be higher.

"The absolutely critical issue is: 'What is in this for the
manufacturer?' If the answer is either unclear or not much, then
incorporation of the new product is a dead issue. In a situation where
there is a subscription service linked to the new vehicle enhancement
(e.g., subscription TV), then the manufacturer would most likely expect
to share in the revenues, including and especially renewals."

It sheds more light on the HD Radio and satellite radio situation with
GM. Although, interestingly enough, they say Ford has interest in
Sirius, and yet Ford is one of the few auto manufacturers that does
offer HD Radio, even retrofit to older vehicles. Hmmm. There may need to
be more in depth analysis of the auto market for FOTA reception of
entertainment content.

They devalue the laptop PC market, saying that regular 8T-VSB would be
used by these instead of M/H. But they also suggest that M/H content may
NOT be a simulcast with other streams to fixed receivers. And that this
issue hasn't been fleshed out yet.

Well, I'd say, likely different content for the M/H channel at least
some of the time? And therefore it would make sense to allow at least
laptops to receive both, selectable by the user, rather than forced by
some auto-select algorithm. This would increase the priority of laptops
for M/H from their current lowest position in the study.

As expected, they conclude that for the FOTA model, a single standard
would offer the greatest rewards. Makes sense to me.

Bert
 
 
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