[opendtv] FW: News: Shapiro To DTV Summit/ The Future Is Here
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "OpenDTV (E-mail)" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 7 Apr 2004 11:25:12 -0400
I have to say, I'm always amazed when I read things that *completely* =
fail to follow a logical thread. I wonder whether the decision makers in =
Congress just accept these arguments as a given.
The CEA is twisting the intent of the 85 percent rule by pretending it =
means "at least 85 percent of homes need to own TV sets that can display =
480p or better." That's how the CEA defines "DTV." As if it weren't =
enough that the intent and the wording of the law are not being met, the =
CEA assumption on what 85 percent must mean is internally illogical to =
boot.
These "DTV" sets the CEA talks about typically receive their signal via =
baseband analog interfaces (component video mostly) and NTSC RF =
(internally deinterlaced). Still in small numbers, some digital baseband =
interface (DVI) too. To the CEA, NTSC OTA transmissions should be =
continued until a huge percentage of homes own gussied up analog sets. =
And the majority of DBS subscribers, with STBs that provide only NTSC or =
some basic baseband output, are certainly out of the picture. For some =
reason, the fact that they don't use NTSC OTA transmissions is of no =
help.
So how exactly does the proliferation of sets fed with analog signals =
logically help with the shutdown of NTSC OTA transmission? And more =
importantly, how do these sets help *more* than would regular old analog =
sets provided with signals that have been converted from digital source =
streams? =20
How strange. Are they serious?
Bert
----------------------------------------
Shapiro To DTV Summit/ The Future Is Here
April 7, 2004 12:00am
Source: Reed Business Information - US
TWICE : WASHINGTON-- "The future has arrived" for
digital television (DTV), declared CEA president
Gary Shapiro in kicking off the ninth annual DTV
Summit here by announcing more than 9 million DTV
products are now seated in U.S. homes.
Consumer enthusiasm for digital television
products is so strong that the CEA has upwardly
revised its sales projections for the next
several years, Shapiro announced.
"We now actually project that 5.7 million DTV
units will be sold this year, 9.4 million in 2005
[1.4 million units higher than last forecast],
15.6 million in 2006 [4 million units higher] and
23 million in 2007 [7 million units higher]. And
this is still for a fairly expensive product,"
Shapiro reported.
While the growth rate exceeds precedents set by
other technologies, it will not reach the 85
percent penetration rate required to end analog
TV broadcasting by the Federal Communications
Commission's (FCC) Dec. 31, 2006 deadline. By
2007 the total installed base of DTV sets and
monitors will reach about 62 million units,
penetrating roughly 53 percent of U.S. homes,
according to CEA market research director Sean
Wargo.
In addition, Wargo said only about 33 percent of
U.S. homes will be actually tuning and displaying
DTV signals by the end of 2007. That is up from
2.3 percent of households at the end of 2003.
"That is not quite the 85 percent [needed for the
end of analog broadcasting], but this is national
and it is really only HDTV, which is where the
rubber meets the road in the transition," Wargo
said.
The numbers were a fairly clear indication that
the government's current timeline will have to be
adjusted by Congress or the FCC shortly.
The FCC's Media Bureau recently proposed counting
cable and satellite subscribers as part of the 85
percent of the population capable of receiving
DTV. But FCC chairman Michael Powell, who
attended a portion of the Summit ceremonies, did
not announce a decision to commit to that plan.
Still, Shapiro said the transition to digital TV
is coming along at twice the speed of color TV in
the 1950s and 1960s. He pointed out that the CE
industry reached the 1 million-unit DTV milestone
in five years -- a feat that took 10 years for
color television to accomplish.
Wargo added that the DTV adoption rate is also
running roughly twice as fast as the adoption of
cable TV.
The key driver in DTV's success has been
high-definition television (HDTV), which
accounted for 87 percent of the DTV products sold
to date, according to CEA.
Shapiro added that the expansion of HDTV
programming has directly led to the increase in
sales of HDTV products.
"Each week, cable provides more than 700 hours of
HDTV programming, and you are seeing increases as
well in satellite and over-the-air broadcasts,"
he said.
Retailers have also contributed significantly to
the uptick in DTV enthusiasm, Shapiro said.
According to Shapiro, hurdles that still need to
be cleared to continue the success of the DTV
transition include the following:
All broadcasters must be required to deliver
their DTV broadcasts in full transmission power.
"Today, some two-thirds of broadcast stations
transmit at low power levels," according to
Shapiro.
Cable operators should be required to retransmit
broadcast DTV signals in the same format in which
they were delivered over the air. "HDTV signals
should be delivered in HD, not a lower-quality
format," Shapiro declared.
Consumers' fair-use rights of digital content
must be protected, "keeping an equitable balance
between the legitimate rights of copyright owners
on the one hand and consumers' fair-use rights to
record programming on the other," Shapiro said.
All parties involved in the digital television
transition should use all the resources possible
-- "including the media you own yourself -- to
extol the benefits of high definition."
Regarding the latter, Shapiro announced that CEA
has developed an Internet-based DTV Retail
Training Program for people on retail sales
floors.
The program is modeled after a wireless marketing
tool CEA developed to help retailers market and
sell cellular phones. The program offers a
technology primer, correct uses of terms and a
guide on how to correctly sell products so
consumers understand what they are buying.
As for DTV revenue, Wargo reported that total
cumulative DTV sales from inception through 2007
would account for $75 billion in factory dollar
volume.
At the consumer level, consumers had invested
over $20 billion in DTV products by the end of
2003, Wargo said.
Using time-adjusted figures, Wargo said DTV
revenue in 2007 will more than double the $12.3
billion peak of analog color TV sales volume set
in 1973.
Among the DTV display types growing in consumer
demand are flat-panel models [LCD TV and plasma],
which are slowly growing in acceptance and will
eclipse CRT direct-view and projection TV (PTV)
in dollar volume by the end of 2007.
Despite the trend, "we don't see tube-based sets
going away anytime soon," Wargo said. "They are
hanging around as the affordable alternative for
the consumer. Projection TV will stay pretty much
the same as a percentage of the market."
By 2007 flat-panel TV unit volume should pass 8
million, Wargo said. Digital micro display-based
[DLP, LCD and LCoS] rear-projection products
represent another up-and-coming segment. He said
about 250,000 micro-display PTVs were sold in
2003, and that is expected to grow to about 2.7
million by 2007.
<<TWICE -- 04/05/04, p. 1>>
<< Copyright =3DA92004 Reed Business Information - US >>
=20
=20
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways:
- Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at =
FreeLists.org=20
- By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word =
unsubscribe in the subject line.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways:
- Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at
FreeLists.org
- By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word
unsubscribe in the subject line.
Other related posts:
- » [opendtv] FW: News: Shapiro To DTV Summit/ The Future Is Here
