[opendtv] Re: Estimate of MVPD subscriptions
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 8 Aug 2015 00:59:55 +0000
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
So it is disingenuous to pretend otherwise, Craig. What is in demand,
and no one doubts this, is broadband Internet access.
Not disingenuous at all. Yes the industry growth is coming from
broadband and home phone switching, but the TV side of the plant
is still VERY profitable -
So now you're being disingenuous and apologetic. The growth is caused by demand
for broadband, and demand for upgraded broadband. The legacy MVPD stuff instead
subtracts from this growth figure. It might still be profitable, but decline is
still decline.
The linear broadcast service will survive,
Around and around we go. "Linear" only makes sense a fraction of the time, for
a fraction of daily TV programs. When you get beyond purely broadcast
technology, for content distribution, how much true "broadcast" will survive is
debatable. For instance, I watch "broadcast" because that's the easiest way, at
this point in time, to get 24 hours news. But it would be even better, for 24
hour news, if I could pick it up unicast as I already described many times.
If I can figure this out, it should not take long for the TV nets to figure it
out. Anyone who watches 24 hour news programs cannot help but wonder why it
makes any sense to re-transmit the same old news stories every 30 minutes or 60
minutes, for hours and hour on end. They might be spliced in at different
points of the 30-minute segment, but they are exactly the same tape, repeated
over and over again. If you are not constrained to broadcast mode, if you have
video servers distributed throughout local ISP networks, this mechanization
will disappear.
Sports, news, and first runs of new programming will still attract
large audiences for the linear service.
Been over this many times too. You continue to miss the fact that the UI has a
lot to do with this. Momentum, hopeless luddites, old hardware, and on demand
UIs that make *you* claim that linear is easier. These are all causes for
linear still being used. These causes will fade over time. As did 4:3 TV
productions.
There will be a mix of linear viewing and VOD viewing,
This amounts to banality, Craig. It's a way of saying nothing and pretending
you've said something.
As for Netflix, I'm pleased that you are finally calling it a bundle,
I've always called it a bundle, Craig. But not being disingenuous, and not
having political motivations, I don't pretend that this Netflix bundle has any
relationship to your much cited MVPD "the bundle." I feel no compulsion to mix
apples and oranges.
No, just a shift from dedicated MPEG TS linear streams to
broadband streaming of both linear streams and VOD content.
Again with this. MPEG-2 TS streaming can handle both linear and on demand,
Craig, and has done so for many years. So if you bring IP into the discussion,
then describe why IP might change things, from a user's point of view. The only
reason it changes anything is that the IP streaming can also be used to bring
in content from outside garden walls. In other words, don't use "IP" just to
hype up old news.
If they shift from MPEG TS to IP streaming they can dedicate bandwidth
and ensure QOS.
That's absurd, Craig. It's far easier to "dedicate bandwidth and ensure QoS"
with MPEG-2 TS streams, than it is with IP streaming. You will most likely be
able to make better use of the pipe with IP streaming, but those advantages you
mentioned are simply not there.
iPhone 5 - 16:9 (1136 x 640 @ 326 ppi)
iPhone 6 - 16:9 (1334 x 750 @ 326 ppi)
iPhone 6 plus - 16:9 (1920 x 1080 @ 401 ppi)
iPad Air 2 - 4:3 (2048 x 1536 @ 264 ppi)
5K Retina iMac - 16:9 (5120 x 2880 @ 320 ppi)
QED, Craig. No need to belabor the obvious.
Bert
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