[opendtv] Re: EE Times: Smartphone Shipments Down for First Time

From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Sun, 01 May 2016 08:57:45 -0400

Ignore first attempt. Obviously PCs are better for e-mail than tablets, as it
is less likely to accidentally touch the send button...

;-)

On Apr 30, 2016, at 8:43 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

That's truly doubtful, as there's nothing to replace the PC.

Ever hear about Microsoft a Surface?

The end would come only if some other device, such as the smartphone, were
capable of being plugged into less restrictive UI devices, so as to become a
device useful for productivity.

Already tablets have taken over all kinds of tasks that formerly required a PC.

IBM has released hundreds of business apps that are designed to tie into
corporate servers. Tablets are to servers what terminals were to corporate
mainframes and minis back in the '70s and '80s.

As you may recall, the PC temporarily disrupted the centralized computing model
used for corporate IT, at least until the PC got networked and was transformed
into a "smart terminal." Now the tablet is taking over a large part of that
role.

Yes, there will still be a market for powerful desktop computers, where you
need a highly customized environment for productivity. Desktop publishing and
video production come to mind...

But these application have more in common with what happened to mainframes and
minis, which still exist, albeit in relatively small numbers.

What is even more important is the declining role of desktops, and even
notebooks in the consumer market. Microsoft established a huge beachhead with
consumers by focusing on gaming, and the home PC as an extension of work. Those
days are largely history, other than for a small group of gaming fanatics. The
Tablet is taking over in the consumer space for good reason - people don't like
sitting at desks to surf the web, watch TV, and play casual games.

More likely, devices such as the Surface tablet, which are PCs in effect,
will do both jobs.

To a large extent they already are. I would just suggest you watch Microsoft
and its partners in this space. The volumes to date have done nothing to
reverse the decline of PC market share - both Gartner and IDC count these
devices as PCs.

Tablets are doing just fine,

That's really old news, Craig. Tablets are in decline, and have been for
quite some time.

No Bert, they are not in decline. Apple sold 10.25 million last quarter; iPad
volumes are expected to start increasing again with the introduction of the
smaller Pro model, which ads the UI features you talked about above.

The reality is that the market for tablets exploded and almost everyone bought
them. This illustrates the problem - saturation and declining market growth:

This chart shows the reality - the shift from PCs/laptops to Tablets:

It just took more time than I would have expected, for people to discover
their limitations. The sales figures dropping is old news, but the usage also
in decline is what you seem to have missed.

No. It's just taking more time for people to upgrade, as they are highly
functional and there is less need to get on the upgrade treadmill.

Articles like this tell the real story.

http://www.macworld.com/article/3061927/ios/five-years-later-my-sturdy-ipad-2-keeps-plugging-along.html

http://www.zdnet.com/article/tablet-use-set-to-fall-in-2016-for-the-first-time/#!

Phablets are phones with larger screens, and replace phones and tablets. But
tablets cannot replace phones nor can they replace PCs. They aren't cellular
devices, and they aren't great for productivity tasks either. So unless they
are hybrid devices such as the Surface, I can see why they are going into
decline.

Get a clue Bert. Many tablets are sold with cellular modems. And With
continuity I can answer and make phone calls from both my computer and tablet
via the cellular modem in my phone.

There are many options today. The PC is in decline because of this.

Usage statistics tell us that the market (and usage) for tablets
is very robust.

I don't know where you get your info, Craig. Probably old news. I'm pretty
sure I've posted similar recent articles on this subject already. Nothing
published before 2015 applies, though. These are finicky fashion trends.
Rarely if ever do you see people showing off their tablets while out in
public, these days, as they did a few years back.

Check with Adobe CMO. They track usage. Tablets accounted for the majority of
online purchases during the last Christmas season.

As for what people are using, have you been to a Starbucks recently?

Regards
Craig

[opendtv] Re: EE Times: Smartphone Shipments Down for First Time

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