[opendtv] Re: EE Times: Smartphone Shipments Down for First Time
- From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2016 21:48:19 -0400
Regards
Craig
On Apr 29, 2016, at 5:58 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
My guess is that the combined drop in sales of tablets and smartphones is
what will slow or reverse the drop in PC sales. Fast growth in these other
two categories had previously contributed to the holding off in PC buying.
Then tablets succumbed to phablets, and now things will reach a more normal
equilibrium. Until some new catregory of electronic toy takes hold of the
public's enthusiasm.
It will be interesting to see if you are right...
But I seriously doubt we will see a rebound in PC sales. Looks like the end of
an era, although the tail end of the product life curve will be long and
relatively flat. I look for about a 10% YOY decline in PC sales for the rest
of this decade, then they may fall off the digital cliff.
Tablets are doing just fine,and may start growing a bit again as we learn what
the real upgraded cycle is for these devices. Too many analysts expected people
to upgrade tablets like they did PCs back in the day. But the reality is that
the technology was fairly mature when they started to grab market share after
2010. This is due in part to the fact that tablets they were the original
design target, but Apple decided to introduce the iPhone first.
As Bert likes to say, tablets (and phablets) are just phones with bigger
screens. The reality is they have met people's needs so well, there had been no
need to get on the upgrade treadmill.
Usage statistics tell us that the market (and usage) for tablets is very
robust. People love them - they just don't need to upgrade them as often as
their phones. Now that mature business applications are available for tablets,
I expect to see some market growth as the market for PCs continues to ride into
the sunset...
There are several factors impacting the market for smartphones.
The most significant is the global economic slowdown...
U.S. GDP growth was just reported at 0.5%.things are worse in most of the rest
of the world.
Next is market saturation, although India and other emerging markets are taking
up some of the slack.
The way people pay for phones is also a factor - the old two year telco
contracts are giving way to finance contracts in most developed economies. This
is a double edged sword:
On one hand, people are learning just how much these phones actually cost, and
some may decide to wait longer than two years to upgrade.
On the other hand, many of these new finance programs make it easy to upgrade
every year, or 18 months.
The situation with Apple is unique. They are the victim of their own success.
The larger 6 series caused a huge upgrade cycle. In the first two quarters they
sold more than 135 million phones (all models). In the first two quarters for
the 5 and 5s introductions they sold about 84 million and 94 million. The first
two quarters of this year they have sold about 125 million.
The YOY comparables have been brutal for Apple...at least for the stock.
The reality for smartphones is that future growth will depend on emerging
markets, but the upgrade cycle will likely remain in the range of 18-36 months.
Regards
Craig
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