[opendtv] Re: EE Times: PC Sales Plummet in Q3

From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Sat, 10 Oct 2015 21:55:48 -0400

On Oct 10, 2015, at 6:35 PM, Albert Manfredi <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

Craig wrote:

The big loser in the decline of PCs is the desktop. Mobility has caused a
shift
from desktop to laptop, and in many cases a tablet is sufficient for most
tasks.

Not true about tablets, Craig. What did the article say about tablets?

It said that 50% of the people they polled planned to buy a PC in the coming
year, while 21% said they were planning to buy a tablet. And it went on to say
that some analysts believe that tablet sales have peaked.

I always thought the hype over tablets was silly. It seemed like giddy people
with a new toy that couldn't think beyond the new toy giddiness. It seems
clear that the biggest loser here is tablets, whose sales plummeted far more
than PC sales. The 7.7% drop was not for the quarter. It was from Q3 2014 to
Q3 2015:

I'm not surprised with your opinion - if nothing else you are consistent.

And I am not impressed with the predictions from Gartner, and IDC in
particular. They are paid backs and have been consistently WRONG.

Here is what IDC forecast for PC sales in 2010

Here is what actually happened:

And here is a 2014 IDC forecast for tablets and 2-in-1 devices.

Do you see a decline here. The decline is in YOY growth. Tablet sales are still
growing, albeit much more slowly than forecast a few years ago. It is true that
unit sales for iPads have declined over the past two years, but there are tons
of cheap Android tablets flooding the market, not to mention the new $50 tablet
from Amazon.

The only problem with iPads is that they were well developed products when they
launched and the upgrade cycle is longer than analysts expected. But that's
what the analysts are saying about PCs.

As I stated in my first response to this thread, software is now the driving
force in the IT industry. I bought this iPad in 2012 and just installed the
third annual iOS update. Each update has provided almost everything I would get
with the latest hardware, although iOS 9 does offer some capabilities that
require the latest version. Capabilities that enhance the use of a tablet for
productivity applications.

Bottom line, like my Macs, I expect at least five years of useful life from
this tablet. I have been upgrading my iPhone at two year intervals, mostly
because of significant hardware improvements.

Tablets are primarily consumption devices, not productivity tools, although
Surface and the 2 - in - 1 devices are trying to do both. In many developing
markets where consumers cannot afford both a phone and tablet, larger screen
phones are preferred over a tablet.

What you completely miss with your "toy" analogy is that tablets are beginning
to be used widely in enterprise applications. Many companies are deploying
large numbers of tablets with custom apps as front ends to their server data
bases. Many airlines have issued tablets to pilots to replace those bags full
of maps and documentation. Restaurants are using tablets as menus and to
improve service. I am looking at a tablet based point-of-sale system for my new
brewery.

But tablets do compete in what some might call the "toy" market. Apps for kids
are a huge market. Casual gaming on mobile devices will pass console games in
revenues this year. Most of these games are more enjoyable on tablets, but they
are about to move to the big screen with the new TV devices announced by Apple
and Amazon. The new Apple TV will support multi-player games on the big screen,
with smartphones and tablets as the controllers.

Of course, I might just be toying with you.

;-)

Regards
Craig

References:
- [opendtv] Re: EE Times: PC Sales Plummet in Q3
  - From: Albert Manfredi

[opendtv] Re: EE Times: PC Sales Plummet in Q3

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