The title is somewhat "click bait." The analysis here makes sense to me,
especially wrt the effect of the free Windows 10 upgrade (which does not
require more CPU or RAM than Windows 7 or Windows 8), and wrt peaking of tablet
sales (probably at least as much caused by the larger smartphones as by
two-in-ones).
Bert
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http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1327960
PC Sales Plummet in Q3
Dylan McGrath
10/9/2015 12:30 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO-As expected, PC shipments declined sharply in the third quarter
despite the launch of Microsoft's Windows 10 operating system, according to
market research firms Gartner Inc. and International Data Corp. (IDC).
Gartner (Stamford, Conn.) and IDC (Framingham, Mass.) laid the blame lackluster
PC shipments largely on currency exchange rates, with the appreciation of the
U.S. dollar leading to an increase in global PC prices of around 10% through
the course of the year.
But the research firms also blamed continued soft demand for PCs among
enterprises and consumers. As expected, the launch of Windows 10 had little
impact on PC sales, largely because Microsoft is allowing users to upgrade
their existing PCs to Windows 10 at no cost, unlike previous Windows OS
rollouts.
Gartner projected that PC shipments declined by 7.7% in the third quarter
compared with the third quarter of 2014. IDC pegged the decline at 10.8%
year-over-year.
Jay Chou, research manager for IDC's worldwide PC tracker, said through a
statement that the third quarter shipment contraction was expected, but that
the firm remains optimistic about future shipments. "While PC shipments will be
hampered in the short run by the availability of a free upgrade to Windows 10,
the improved PC experience across user segments should drive longer-term demand
for new PC hardware that is expected help stabilize the market in 2016 and
beyond," Chou said.
Gartner said the "silver lining" despite the grim third quarter shipment
numbers was that its personal technology survey indicated that 50% of consumers
plan to buy a new PC within the next 12 months, compared with 21% planning to
buy a new tablet. The rise in tablets has been a primary reason for sluggish PC
sales over the past several years. But tablet shipments are on the wane, and
some analysts believe they have peaked.
"This change in consumer preferences toward PCs was visible in the preliminary
data, as we saw positive growth in U.S notebook and premium ultramobile
shipments," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner.
Kitagawa predicted that a soft recovery in PC sales would begin in the fourth
quarter as more systems that have Windows 10 begin to appear. "In the meantime,
PC manufacturers should adjust configurations for 2016 without the impact of
price hikes seen in 2015, which will lead into more stable market conditions in
the upcoming year," Kitagawa said.
Kitagawa added that the price increases impacted mostly PC sales in Europe, the
Middle East, Japan and Latin America. Third quarter PC sales in the U.S. and
the Asia Pacific region were more stable, she said.
Lenovo remained the top PC vendor in the third quarter, with shipments,
according to Gartner and IDC. While the firms estimated Lenovo's PC shipments
declined 4% to 5% in the third quarter, Lenovo nevertheless held 20% to 21%
market share during the quarter, the research firms said.
-Dylan McGrath covers the semiconductor industry for EE Times
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