[opendtv] Re: ED/HDTV sales
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 3 Oct 2005 08:35:13 -0400
At 12:15 PM -0400 9/29/05, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
> > Just as your previous skepticism about HDTV was.
>
>This is from Mark's Moday Memo:
>
>"That gives us a new benchmark. With flat-panel displays
>added, the 'digital' proportion of TV sales to dealers
>(either DTT-equipped or capable of dealing with at least
>480p) rises from 17% to 32.4% in sales this year through
>the end of June."
>
>While a 480p set is not HDTV, it is still better than
>SDTV, is beyond MPEG-2 MP at ML, and therefore benefits
>from the HD bistream. When are we beyond "niche"?
Uhhhhhh....
When the MAJORITY of TVs sold have 480P or better resolution?
Even that milestone, however, falls short of moving HDTV out of NICHE status.
Only a tiny percentage of flat panel displays can deliver the HD
viewing experience. Anything less than 40" diagonal is unusable as an
HD display because the image is too small at normal viewing
distances. I'm am certain that Bert is quite aware of this, now that
he has an LCD panel that is smaller than 30' diagonal. Clearly the
video is better than an NTSC display; it is equally clear, however,
that the detail in an HDTV signal can only be perceived when sitting
uncomfortably close to the screen at a distance that has more in
common with using a computer, than watching TV.
As an owner of an HD capable display, who is now enjoying the HDTV
viewing experience, I can say with some authority that picture size
matters. I have viewed the same HD source on both big and small
screens of all types, both interlaced and progressive. The HD viewing
experience requires that the display covers a large portion of the
field of view at the designed viewing distance. This is simply
impractical with smaller screens, as the vast majority of viewers
will not choose to sit 3-4 feet from a display to watch TV.
The whole issue of "niche" versus mainstream is irrelevant to this
discussion. There will always be market segments at different price
points, offering different features and levels of delivered image
quality. Even before HD was a commercial product in this county,
nearly 20% of all TVs sold had screens that would now qualify - in
terms of picture SIZE - as an HD display. This was called the home
theater segment, and it comes as no surprise, that people in this
category were among the first to buy HD capable displays.
And then there is the "impact" of the HD viewing experience.
Apparently it ain't all it is cracked up to be. We now have access to
the HD programming from CBS, NBC, PBS, ESPN-HD, and Discovery HD. At
least 4-5 times a week I have observed my wife and Father-in-law
watching the SD version of a program that is available in HD on the
HD digital tier. yesterday they watched the Tampa Bay/Detroit game in
SD, despite the fact that it was available in HD. Earlier this week I
showed them that their favorite series (the CSI shows on CBS) are now
available in HD. Their only comment is that the screen is filled
rather than the SD pillarbox; they do acknowledge that sports is
better in HD, but for the dramatic series, they say it makes no
difference...
Perhaps this has more to do with age, visual acuity, or fear of the
Cox cable remote, but it also says volumes about what may people
expect from their TV - that they are more concerned about the quality
of the content than the quality of the picture.
What IS very important about the growing sales of LCD panel displays
is that they are now perceived as being a desirable replacement for
comparably sized direct view CRT displays. Again, I suspect that
part of the reason for this is related to their size, versus the bulk
of a CRT. Picture quality is certainly improved on many of these
sets, however, to be fair I have seen many that are not as good as a
decent interlaced CRT.
We can hope that with the shift from interlaced CRTs to progressive
scan panel displays that there will be more incentive to move to
progressive image formats. EDTV has significant potential, especially
as a mass distribution format, as you can deliver higher quality
images to these panel displays at the same or lower bit rates than
for an equivalent SD source that is encoded using the MP@ML encoding
tools.
It may take a decade, but I suspect that as more computer savvy
generations become mainstream consumers, that they will seek higher
quality content that equals the quality of what they see every day on
their computer screens. The trends are now moving in the right
direction, and HD is assuming its proper role as the motivation to
buy at least one big screen in each home.
Regards
Craig
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