[opendtv] Re: Digiday.com: What comes after HBO cuts the cord

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Nov 2014 23:35:28 +0000

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

> I hold no more fascination with "the bundle" than other analysts.

Well, maybe "fascination" is not the right word. Let me just say that you seem 
to obsess constantly about whether or not something might harm this "the 
bundle," even though content owners themselves are at best paying lip service 
to it, anymore. Or are even actively promoting ways to bypass it (e.g. CBS).

> Like most Americans I DO NOT like oligopoly and monopoly business
> models.

Then don't use them. Use competitive pipes that offer competitive content. If 
you and like-minded did this, as many have been doing of late, you would help 
accelerate the ongoing change. Honestly, it seems pretty obvious now that the 
ONLY thing keeping the TV content distribution industry on the precipice to 
oblivion is the inflexible sports fan. All the signs are pointing in the wrong 
direction, for sustained long-term viability. And getting worse next year.

> Our positions differ only in that you think the Internet and OTT
> video services will bring the old business model to its knees, while
> I think the content owners have the ability to control this
> technology transition, protect their lucrative bundling practices,

That's why I started focusing ON the content owners. Not just my own 'druthers, 
nor on hangers-on, including any Intel or Sony wannabe new middlemen. And what 
is becoming very evident is that the content owners are only interested in 
making more money for themselves. You might be correct that any new OTT model 
will end up costing more, for those who want to get the same huge barrage of 
content, but ultimately that's beside the point. We need only to focus on what 
the content owners are saying, concerning "the bundle," aka how happy they are 
to go down in flames together, as opposed to bailing out while they can, or at 
least, have an escape option *in place*.

> The biggest have the most to lose. But the exodus is not large
> compared to the money they pull in from people who do not watch
> ESPN. The Bloomberg article you posted confirms this.

The Bloomberg article also points out that this subsidizing of the sports 
channels, by the majority who don't want sports programs, is something of great 
concern to these non-sports content owners. They have been "putting up with 
it," and they get some little advertising, but this is hardly a slam-dunk. Here 
are the exact words:

"Programmers put up with these losses, in part, because the reliably large 
audiences for sports allow them to promote their networks and other shows. 
(Hey, look, it's the star of our new sitcom sitting in the crowd.) But the 
breaking point for escalating rights fees may not be far off, especially if the 
network distribution numbers drop."

The Bloomberg article, not yet 2 weeks old, does not paint the rosy picture you 
seem to paint, wrt the viability or desirability of "the bundle." It does paint 
a picture of owners who are questioning their old truisms, and not very 
confident of keeping things as they are.

Bert

 
 
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