[opendtv] Re: Deloitte Puts Reality Check on SVOD | Home Media Magazine
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 19 Jan 2015 01:27:10 +0000
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> Vaguely?
>
> "Through 2018, SVOD is projected to generate $15.6 billion in revenue
> globally, of which $2 billion in revenue will be from Europe. These tallies
> amount to just 4% of all worldwide pay-TV revenue, and 2.5% of European
> pay-TV revenue."
>
> These are real numbers Bert, not some vague projection.
Revenues, projected revenues, that don't tell the whole story. Once again, it
is rates that matter. We already know that a huge percentage of actual MVPD
subscribers watch online content on a regular basis. I think it was 40 percent.
We should have no trouble at all deducing that an even higher percentage of
cord cutters and cord nevers use online sources more than MVPD subscribers.
The revenues migrate where the eyeballs migrate, Craig. And I wouldn't even
limit myself to just "S"VOD. I'd call it instead, unwalled, IP-delivered TV.
There must come a time when the CE vendors of online TV boxes stop timidly
asking permission from pay-TV media, for what sites they should allow their
customers to browse. For instance, I watch a whole lot more "non-S, unwalled,
online TV" than SVOD, even though that type of TV hardly ever gets mentioned.
> As I have pointed out before, however, these shifts take time, and
> trends may look impressive, until one looks at the big picture -
> 4% is a small number.
Yes, but 40 percent, and most likely way more for non-MVPD-subscribers, is a
huge number.
This sort of myopia happens all the time. Reminds me of the transition of TV
productions from 4:3 to 16:9 aspect ratio. When HDTV was standardized to a 16:9
aspect ratio, it was obvious that all TV productions which were still being
transmitted as 4:3 would soon migrate. Yet, there were the skeptics. Or, when
telcos began deploying packet-switched Internet service, the nay-sayers
insisted that "Yes, but the majority of telco revenues still come from
circuit-switched service."
Naysaying about these things is for luddites. History shows that some
transitions, such as the two above, are simply OBVIOUS. Doesn't matter what the
revenues might be TODAY, when the technology is so clearly shifting to other
solutions.
>> For telcos that intend to retain their voice grade twisted pairs
>> to homes, we've seen that 1 Gb/s xDSL is currently being
>> developed. This is what matters. Not the status quo of last month
>> or last year.
>
> More vague predictions...
Although you missed it, I was simply pointing out that there are no brick-wall
obstacles in expanding broadband, even broadband adequate for 4K. xDSL links of
25 Mb/s and 52 Mb/s are *already* available, already adequate for 4K. And those
connected to cable have similar rates available to them.
In the US, we already have well over 80 percent of households with broadband by
now (it was almost 80 percent back in 2010, and had been climbing rapidly for
many years).
So honestly, to have broadband access cited as a major impediment to online TV
sounds bit like the alarmists/apologists/pessimists, back in the early to mid
2000s, who fretted anytime the stats showed a slight flattening of HDTV set
sales.
> We still have a long way to go.
This site:
http://www.statista.com/statistics/183614/us-households-with-broadband-internet-access-since-2009/
says the 2010 figure was 78.5 percent, and was projecting 92.5 percent by this
year. I don't know what the actual figure is, but 92.5 percent is hardly an
impossible dream. If it's not the actual figure, it soon will be.
Bert
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