[opendtv] Re: Delay

  • From: "Bob Miller" <robmxa@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Thu, 7 Dec 2006 00:45:12 -0500

On 12/6/06, Albert Manfredi <bert22306@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Bob Miller wrote:

>Well six or seven years later we can look back and see that
>OTA DTV with 8-VSB did not drive sales of HDTV sets.

That's because from the late 1980s, when advanced TV was being considered,
to today, the majority of people went like zombies to pay services. The OTA
element is not the significant driver of new TVs. HDTVs are being sold now
primarily because they are flat and have bigger screens, are far less bulky,
and have nicer, sharper, more contrasty pictures.

But we know that. HDTV sets are being sold to watch DVDs, to play
games, because they fit the decor, because they are flat, sexy, you
name it. At least 60% of them for such reasons since they don't have
any HD imput.

You keep missing the point that HDTV is thriving, people are buying them,
and it doesn't need to depend on OTA access. Even if the majority are still
not seeing true HD sources, they are satisfied initiallly with the
improvement provided by the deinterlaced displays. And they are excited by
the true HD pictures, especially the sports fans, and want them in their
homes. Don't you spend any time in stores?

Sound like the sale of HDTV sets is thriving not HD, or at least HD is
thriving a lot less than the sale of HDTV sets. And IMO HDTV sales are
thriving at a much lower rate than they would be if we had a viable
OTA DTV transition.

>we have around 7% who still depend on OTA for TV.

More like 30+ percent overall. But what's your point?

Define overall. I contend that 7% depend on OTA. Tell me why I should
think it is 30%. Haven't heard that figure, in fact haven't heard any
figures except the one I deduced. Please tell me more about these
pathetic creatures, all 30% of them that still depend on OTA in your
opinion.

>Who then is getting their HD fix from OTA?

I am. And people with satellite who want HD network shows. Again, what's
your point? They quit OTA long years before any DTT reception difficulties
may have arisen.

My point is absent anyone using the OTA spectrum why not sell it off?
That is what Congress is going to be thinking after the analog turnoff
and all the media attention is focused on the pathetic numbers that
will be very public then about who is using OTA DTV.


>What if we had talked about doing a multicast DTV

They do that too. WETA-DT has 4 real multicasts. WMPT-DT has 2 real
multicasts for now, but plan for 4. A PAX station has 6. Mark Aitken's Fox
affiliate has 2 multicasts. The CW affiliates have 2 multicasts. Most other
stations have at least a weather channel as a second multicast. I didn't
count those as "real."

Nor do I but I am talking about multiple stations in a market offering
say 30 channels like in the UK with HD thrown in cutting the number of
channels for prime time in demand shows.
And maybe this could be promoted. Can't happen with 8-VSB IMO.

In any event, what's your point? With cable and DBS, they got their multiple
channels anyway. They did not depend on DTT, by 1998, when DTT began
broadcasting, to get a zillion channels.

>I would bet that OTA would have driven HD far more than it has.

I'll bet you're quite wrong. Most people had already gone lock step into
cable and DBS by the time DTV and HDTV sets became affordable. DTT simply
came too late to make a difference in DTV or HDTV sales, in the US.

>One thing I do know, 8-VSB has DELAYED HDTV sales.

Not even by a microsecond, IMO. If anything, it is cable and DBS that
delayed decent ATSC receivers. So I trhink you are 180 degrees out. Had the
sale of DTV/multicast-capable receivers and HDTV products depended on ATSC,
we would not have had to wait 4 years to barely get to see the very first
5th gen STB on store shelves. Oh wait, I haven't even seen one yet, in the
flesh. It will probably be 5 years by the time I see one. (March 2002 was
the Linx lab demo.) Anyway, we now have integrated sets everywhere, so even
that isn't a problem.

Most people here use pay TV, so no matter what OTA modulation scheme there
is, DTV sales don't depend on DTT. Besides, integrated sets are everywhere
already, at great prices. If there is any problem left, it is that I can't
yet buy a decent DTT recording device. Because people have been suckered
into paying the extra rent for the proprietary variety offered by pay
services. How obnoxious is that?

I think you need to get off this modulation excuse. It doesn't hold up to
logic.

It is the only logic that holds up IMO.

Japan started OTA DTV HDTV in December 2003 and they will have sold 17
million receivers by Christmas or 35% of households. NO MANDATE. Most
of these receivers come in integrated HDTV sets. And they did not even
have that great a coverage for quite some time. Only last week they
got to 84% of households.

http://www.dibeg.org/techp/061101_dibeg_i.pdf

And the people that bought them buy them to use them for OTA HDTV
reception unlike in the US where people don't even know they bought
one.

If we had chosen DVB-T/H and started with a multicast of many SD
programs with whatever HD for primetime in 2000 by now we would have
sold more OTA receivers than we have households. That is if we only
did as good as the UK has been doing since December of 2002.

The modulation is everything.

Bob Miller

Bert

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