The whole argument over 8-VSB/COFDM back in 199/2000 revolved around the word "delay". Even talking about the problems of 8-VSB was termed a "delaying tactic". The horror of missing the numbers for one quarter for the CEA crowd crowded out any possibility of honest discourse. Congressman Dingel told the DoD to but out, stop talking about homeland security issues and COFDM because selling HDTV sets is the most important thing and we can broach no "DELAY". Sinclair was tarred with the same term. Sinclair would delay the sale of high margin HDTV sets. OTA DTV and 8-VSB with no delay was going to drive the sale of HDTV sets and make billions for CEA companies. Well six or seven years later we can look back and see that OTA DTV with 8-VSB did not drive sales of HDTV sets. If 50 to 60% of those who have purchased an HDTV set have NO HD service of any kind including OTA then why did they buy their HDTV? If we know that 88% of households (J.D. Powers) have cable and satellite, that 2% have no TV at all and that another 3% steals cable or satellite, we have around 7% who still depend on OTA for TV. And we know.... "While high-def sets are in nearly 25 million U.S. homes, industry officials estimate that less than 10 million actually have the tuners necessary to watch high-def signals." http://www.tvpredictions.com/directvsubs110806.htm That's 40% of HD households that have actual HD when all they supposedly have to do is buy an STB and antenna or maybe just the antenna to get HD. Obviously something other than OTA DTV drove at least 60% of sales. Obviously at least 60% of HD buyers don't even know of OTA HDTV or don't want it for some reason. Of the 40% who have HD service I would expect, they being the most affluent part of our society, that most have cable or satellite. Who then is getting their HD fix from OTA? How many of those 10 million or 40%? How many of the seven percent who still depend on OTA are getting HDTV OTA? How many are going to stick with OTA HD of those who have it now? How many cable or satellite subscribers will switch to or add OTA? How many satellite subscribers now use OTA because they have to? How many of the seven percent who depend on OTA analog will switch to OTA digital at analog shut down? How many of those seven percent OTA dependent will be wooed away by cable and satellite around analog shut down? I suggest that OTA HDTV represents from 1 to 2 percent now and will climb to 3 to 4 percent after analog shut down max. Not many IMO. Not enough to justify maintaining free OTA broadcasting on all that spectrum. What if we had talked about doing a multicast DTV like the UK but with HD interspersed with the SD unlike OZ where multicast was outlawed? What if we had a modulation that worked well mobile and fixed? I would bet that OTA would have driven HD far more than it has. That there would be more OTA receivers in the US today than households, and that all thing OTA including HD would be in the ascendant instead of the gutter. As it is HD is still being driven by DVDs. More HD sets will be sold this Christmas than HD services. And I mean that for every 100 HDTV sets sold less than 40 new HD services will be sold. So the percentage of HD owners who have some kind of HD service, 40%, is going down. In the end virtually all of us will have HDTV sets, we will all have HD service, I take that as a given. But will any of us have free OTA HD and does it matter? I don't know. One thing I do know, 8-VSB has DELAYED HDTV sales. Bob Miller ---------------------------------------------------------------------- You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways:- Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org
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