[opendtv] Cisco Systems: The Zettabyte Era—Trends and Analysis

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 00:18:39 +0000

http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/VNI_Hyperconnectivity_WP.html

Some interesting stats and projections from Cisco, dated May 2015.

Here's one that applies to TV, and which we mentioned here many times recently:

"Metro traffic surpassed long-haul traffic in 2014, and will account for 66
percent of total IP traffic by 2019. Metro traffic will grow more than twice as
fast as long-haul traffic from 2014 to 2019. The higher growth in metro
networks is due in part to the increasingly significant role of content
delivery networks (CDNs), which bypass long‑haul links and deliver traffic to
metro and regional backbones."

"Globally, IP video traffic will be 80 percent of all IP traffic (both business
and consumer) by 2019, up from 67 percent in 2014. This percentage does not
include the amount of video exchanged through peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing.
The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand [VoD], Internet, and P2P)
will continue to be in the range of 80 to 90 percent of global consumer traffic
by 2019."

"Internet video to TV grew 47 percent in 2014. This traffic will continue to
grow at a rapid pace, increasing fourfold by 2019. Internet video to TV will be
17 percent of consumer Internet video traffic in 2019, up from 16 percent in
2014."

"With the exception of short-form video and video calling, most forms of
Internet video do not have a large upstream component. As a result, traffic is
not becoming more symmetric, which many expected when user-generated content
first became popular. The emergence of subscribers as content producers is an
extremely important social, economic, and cultural phenomenon, but subscribers
still consume far more video than they produce. Upstream traffic has been
slightly declining as a percentage for several years."

"We are seeing a trend in which the growth in digital television service that
denotes television viewing across all digital platforms (cable, IPTV,
satellite, etc.) is growing much slowly relative to online video and mobile
video (Figure 16). This trend is more pronounced in regions such as North
America and Western Europe, where the penetration of digital TV is already
high. Also, in emerging regions mobile video growth rates are even higher, as
these regions are skipping over fixed connectivity."

Not sure how the above would classify TVE to a mobile device. Or cbs.com to a
PC, for that matter. The graph shows online video already higher than DTV, and
mobile video overtaking both in 2016.

"Also, if we look at Internet devices such as DMAs [digital media adapters -
Roku, AppleTV, Chromecast, ...], we find that although they represent only 7
percent of all Internet connected set-top boxes (STBs) — including, service
provider STBs, gaming consoles, and directly connected Internet TV sets — by
2019, they will represent 32 percent of global Internet STB traffic. This trend
again shows that there is increasingly less reliance on STBs managed by service
providers for Internet access in general and for video specifically (Figure 18).

"From a traffic perspective, we expect that on average a household that is
still on linear TV will generate much less traffic than a household that has
cut the cord and is relying on Internet video (Figure 19). A cord-cutting
household will generate 92 GB per month in 2015, compared to 43 GB per month
for an average household. This difference occurs because linear television
generates much less traffic (one stream of video shared across a number of
linear-TV households) than Internet video, which is unicast to each Internet
video device."

Bert

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